马来西亚 房地产泡沫（有效至12月31日）

JordanGoh

各有各道理～

夜铃

各位，感觉都hit了吗？

By Opalyn Mok
November 13, 2012

GEORGE TOWN, Nov 13 ―  Falling global demand has forced Penang factories to freeze hiring, cut production and implement four-day weeks, even as analysts predicted Malaysia’s economy grew slower in the third quarter.
The Malaysian Insider understands that factories in Penang, the country’s main electronics manufacturing hub, have stopped hiring, and are not even replacing those who have retired or resigned.
Many plants have also reduced output to cut costs.
Malaysia’s economy probably grew at its slowest pace in the third quarter as exports fell, but resilient domestic demand, partly fuelled by government spending ahead of an election next year, helped shore up expansion, according to a Reuters poll.
Exports account for roughly 60 per cent of Malaysia’s gross domestic product, and these have been hurt by weaker demand for commodities and electronic components in China as well as the European Union.

The hardest hit would be the electronics sector due to the drop in global demand.
“For the time being, many of these companies are still able to sustain their business until the end of this year,” said Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers’ Datuk O.K. Lee.

The hardest hit would be the electronics sector due to the drop in global demand but Lee said other industries are also similarly affected as the manufacturing sector relies heavily on exports.
“Some of the factories are not working at full capacity now and due to the gloomy global economic outlook, many are also holding back on investments and adopting the wait and see method,” he said.
Some industry insiders noted that several multinationals are offering voluntary separation schemes to its employees but are careful to keep this hushed up.
”These are big MNCs so they have to be careful to protect their reputation but these are not huge numbers of VSS in any one company but small numbers spread out over the months so as not to raise any alarm ,” one industry official said.
Even as factories cut down production and output, working hours were also reduced and overtime slashed.

A factory manager said it has been several months since the factory workers were told to work four-day weeks.
This is also the time for some of us to clear our leave too as production has decreased. We are just glad that there were no retrenchment exercises.
While there were no signs of retrenchments, plants have had to adjust capacities in order to remain viable in these uncertain times, said InvestPenang executive chairman Datuk Simon Wong.

He said Penang was fortunate that it had recorded exceptionally great months last year and this helps to ease the slowdown this year due to the whiplash from the global economic downturn.
Penang had recorded RM12.2 billion in manufacturing investments in 2010 and RM9.1 billion last year.

Wong said the previous years’ exceptional performance in investments will help to tide the sector over for this year and possibly next year.
This year, between January to July, Penang only recorded investments of not more than RM1.7 billion.
“Instead of comparing the investment amount on an annual basis, we should be looking at the investments on a three-year basis as we are talking about long-term investments,” said Wong.
He said what looks like a “flat” year in terms of investments in Penang this year may not be a bad thing at all as it allows the industrial sector to move up higher the value-chain instead of continuing with the traditional operator-based services.
“We don’t want to have too many of these kinds of investments as it will choke up the industry and create a bottleneck.”
He said the amount of investments will also need to grow in tandem with the available infrastructure in order to sustain the industry in the years to come.
Wong said the state government is now spending more time to develop the local small medium enterprises (SME) to get these smaller entities to compete at the global and regional level.
The state is also concentrating on attracting investments in other sectors such as in medical devices, LED, renewable energy, medical tourism and most recently, the halal industry.
There is a global market trend of increasing demand in the LED industry as the industry is forecasted to grow by six per cent by the end of this year.

The next big thing that is seeing growth in Penang is the medical tourism industry.

According to the Malaysia Healthcare Travel Council, Penang accounts for 50 per cent of the medical tourism industry in Malaysia.
This industry saw a 26 per cent growth last year as compared to 2010.

The manufacturing sector may be expecting a gloomy outlook in the months to come due to the uncertain global economic outlook which could also cause investors to be more cautious, Wong said this will not greatly affect the overall performance of the sector in the state.
“Everyone will be more cautious next year due to the global outlook, but that doesn’t necessarily spell gloom for Penang as we have other industries to focus on,” Wong said.

u0508950

夜铃 发表于 13-11-2012 11:17 PM
各位，感觉都hit了吗？

By Opalyn Mok

不过产业价格没有跌.....

stone-creation

这是马来西亚23年来的房屋走趋图，
屋价只有在1997年亚洲金融危机时下跌，一年后即回升。5年后收复失地。
间中大马经济有起有落，似乎对产业价格没甚么影响。

JolinHo

个人觉得这次会不同，产业可能会被引响。买来投资的人多了。

stone-creation

JolinHo 发表于 19-11-2012 08:36 PM
个人觉得这次会不同，产业可能会被引响。买来投资的人多了。

有甚么不同？说来听听。

类一凡

泡沫会不会来，那就要问公司裁不裁员。

裁，就会来，不裁就不会来，其他什么道理都假。

JolinHo

stone-creation 发表于 19-11-2012 08:52 PM
有甚么不同？说来听听。

个人认为，投资者多了，如果房价这几年保持稳定，相信投资者会卖房产投资别的。屋子就多出来了，需求也减少了。
但还要看马币的价值，我上星期买了一支笔。它的价钱是两年前的两倍。 马币贬值得快屋价就不会跌。

stone-creation

JolinHo 发表于 22-11-2012 08:47 AM
个人认为，投资者多了，如果房价这几年保持稳定，相信投资者会卖房产投资别的。屋子就多出来了，需求也减 ...

“房价保持稳定”就表示投资风险低，你能找出市场大，风险低，高栱杆，收益比定期存款好的“其他”投资吗？

JolinHo

stone-creation 发表于 22-11-2012 11:05 AM
“房价保持稳定”就表示投资风险低，你能找出市场大，风险低，高栱杆，收益比定期存款好的“其他”投资吗 ...

我找得到或找不到不重要吧，我都没多少钱去投资，最多不就买间屋子自己住称不上投资。但我肯定那些投资的大大一定有办法。试想一下，几年前房产没价时，还不是有人赚大钱，但没我的份，哈哈！

stone-creation

JolinHo 发表于 22-11-2012 11:29 PM
我找得到或找不到不重要吧，我都没多少钱去投资，最多不就买间屋子自己住称不上投资。但我肯定那些投资的 ...

前几年的BLR是六七巴仙，最高时是超过十二巴仙。
你找不到，那就是靠猜的啰。。。

xxx03764

就算有，也不可能那么早。。。还久得很！

vincentsieng

自住的有什么好怕什么泡沫,不通泡沫来了,你就要卖了屋子,然后跑去租屋或者睡街吗?

hlpang

怕输

话说回来， 撇掉paper gain/lose不说,  什么时候要怕的只是收入与支出。

SweetieCutie

不管行情怎么坏，房地产仍然是投资的选择。。

spirintel

哈，我觉得没那么快啦。。。看看过去的2001-2011年的房屋供应量。。。
https://www.facebook.com/mysgpro ... ;type=1&theater

tiramisu83

可能会在2017，因为听说世界经济衰退每隔20年一次，听说而已。。
大马的屋价越来越高，而且是大多数年轻人都负担不起的，所以我觉得会还是很多人宁愿租屋子

deanboy214

其实大马的房地产价格比起其他国家是严重的被低估了...只是因为我们国家的经济只退不进照成人民的收入低微买不起房产...所以个人觉得不会泡沫只是会短暂停歇上涨而已~

wcz

如何看透泡沫的本质
泡沫的本质是什么？
以泡沫而言，如果我们不知道泡沫因什么而起，我们当然也很难判断泡沫会因为什么缘故破灭。
房地产价格会否上涨其实就是一个很简单的供给与需求观念，也就是看看这个市场究竟是
钱多？还是房屋多？
如果是钱多，那么房地产价格上涨的机会就大。
如果是房屋多，自然价格上涨的机会就会小。
其实追根究底，房地产泡沫的本质就是，
泛滥的货币而已。
如果我们能够理解房地产的价格是由货币数量所操控， 那么我们应该不难理解为什么台湾过去有着相当高的空屋率，然而房屋价格还会持续上升？
很简单的原因，就是因为市场上充斥着更多的货币。
简单来说，货币泛滥就容易产生泡沫。
当我们确立泡沫的本质是如此，那么让泡沫破灭的方式，就是将市场上的资金回收或者导引到其它地方。
2011年第三季，台湾的国际收支出现了近四年来的最大逆差金额， 显示有大量的资金向海外市场流出。
台湾股市单季跌幅高达16.49%，而根据房仲业者，信义房屋的台湾房屋价格指数显示，同一个季度，正好是台湾房屋价格在近几个季度以来首次出现下跌的迹象。

摘自《预见未来》
作者：王伯达
２０１２

js188

楼上写的太对了， 我看到现在的情况是市场上的钱开始少了。