【专题讨论】寻找市场导向的主因----情绪切入法

secondbrother

财兄，united malacca 卖掉 pacmas 是好事，猜会有 rm１。００ 的dividend 收。united malacca 一直以来都是 plantation company， pacmas 只是投资。

pacmas 是一间中规中举的 general insurer，没有了 pacific bank 的 backing 差了一点。great eastern life 曾经要用它后门上市，但告吹了，为了great eastern life 我也中了一枪，而转战maybulk。

bryon

google找到的

DIGI 估值上的改变 （Change of Appraisal)

这是观点上的改变，并非全部投资者都认同的话题。我是以投资大师 PHILIP FISHER 的理论来探讨这个公司和它的市价。

Digi (2004), net profit= 317mil, eps= 42.3sen
Digi (2005), net profit= 471mil, eps= 62.8sen

Digi July 2005, 市价=5.10
Digi June 2005, 市价=10.50

在一年里，Digi 的盈利增加了49％，但是它的市价却增加了100％。到底是什么原因造成它的市价增加了一倍呢？？！！

答案是PHILIP FISHER 所说的估值上的改变 （Change of Appraisal)！！！！

"Any substantial changes of the share price is due to change of appraisal of investing public"

现在我们要看的是什么原因造成估值上的改变。DIGI， 大马最小的电讯公司，没有经济效应，每一个人都不看好它可以跟 maxis 和 celcom 分庭抗礼。还有就就自从Telenor收购后，从来没有发过任何股息。

但是有留意 DIGI 的人都知道它是可以更 maxis 和 celcom 一齐竞争的。它推出的配套甚至比maxis更 innovative， 它不断的在改变这行业的游戏规则。

还有就是不派股息的形象也改变了，它宣布了１st 75sen 的 capital repayment(已派发了），2nd 60sen capital repayment。还有就是它承诺把50％往后的盈利派发给股东。

DIGI已改变人们对它的观点／看法，也造就了估值上的改变 （Change of Appraisal)！！！！

这也是人们说的，投资也就是一门艺术！！！！

Mr.Business

傳奇基金經理誤踩3地雷‧害母公司單季虧8億
2008-05-08 16:57

連續15年操作績效打敗大盤的傳奇基金經理米勒（Bill Miller）終究也有失手的時候，這次還連踩3個地雷，導致他所操盤基金第1季績效慘跌近24%。母公司美盛（Legg Mason）受此拖累，出現25來首度季報虧損，單季淨損金額逾2億5000萬美元（約7億9163億令吉）。



連續15年績效贏標普500指數

米勒在投資界頗富盛名，其主持的美盛價值信託基金曾經締造連續15年績效贏過標普500指數的輝煌記錄。

然而，從去年年中開始，米勒在投資眼光上似乎開始出現偏差，先是大量敲進受旗下對衝基金營運風暴利空打擊的貝爾斯登，接著又一路加碼全國金融（Countrywide Financial），連長年基本主要持股的雅虎今年也出狀況，讓米勒突然一下子踩到3個市場大地雷。

連踩3個地雷的結果就是美盛價值信託基金今年首季淨值慘跌23.9%，全國金融從高點起算迄今暴跌89%，貝爾斯登重挫94%，雅虎跌幅也有約20%。

由於美盛價值信託為雅虎的第2大股東，米勒曾公開向雅虎高層施壓要向微軟要求更好的併購條件，不料上週六微軟突然宣佈撤回收購提議，導致雅虎本週一股價重挫15%。

這次市場震撼也讓米勒生涯投資成績瞬間崩盤。美盛價值信託基金最近10年的年平均投資報酬率大幅縮水至僅3.91%，不但比無風險的國庫券還低，較標普500指數也才多0.41%。

米勒的投資失利連累到母公司，美盛公佈首季每股虧1.81美元；去年同期有1.725億美元的淨利，每股盈餘1.19美元。

星洲日報／財經‧2008.05.08

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/12600

Mr.Business

新闻。

Legg Mason Value Trust's Bill Miller forecasts 'worst is behind us'
04.23.08, 2:51 PM ET

SAN FRANCISCO (Thomson Financial) - Legg Mason Inc.'s Bill Miller, portfolio manager of Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund, on Wednesday issued his first-quarter investment commentary to shareholders, projecting that the credit panic ended with the collapse of Bear Stearns.

'For planning purposes, here is my forecast: I think we will do better from here on, and that by far the worst is behind us,' Miller wrote. 'If spreads continue to come in, the write-offs at the big financials will end, and we may even have some write-ups in the second half instead of write-downs'

Miller noted that the wild card is commodities.

'If commodities break, or even just stop their relentless rise, equity markets should do well,' he wrote. 'If they continue to move steadily higher, they have the potential to destabilize the global economy. We are already seeing unrest in many countries due to the soaring prices of rice and other grains.'

The weak dollar is another culprit of the commodity cycle, Miller said. However, he noted that the stage is set for 'what should be an improving environment for investors in stocks and in spread credit products.

'Our portfolio, in my opinion, is in excellent shape, despite, or more accurately because of, its performance,' Miller said. 'Prices have declined substantially more than business values.'

The fund's top 10 holdings as of March 31 are Amazon.com Inc. at 6.5%, AES Corp. at 6.4%, JPMorgan Chase and Co. at 5%, Aetna Inc. at 4.9%, UnitedHealth Group Inc. at 4.5%, Yahoo Inc. at 4.4%, eBay Inc. at 4.2%, General Electric Co. at 4%, Sears Holding Corp. at 4%, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. at 3.5%.

The Legg Mason Value Trust dropped 19.7% in the quarter, compared with a loss of 9.4% for the S&P 500.

Shares of Baltimore-based Legg Mason were up 55 cents, or almost 1%, at $58.62.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/fe ... /23/afx4924856.html


Bill Miller Says Microsoft Will Come Back to Yahoo (Update3)
By Gillian Wee

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Miller, the Legg Mason Inc. fund manager whose investments lost 20 percent in the first quarter, said Microsoft Corp. may return to buyout talks with Yahoo! Inc. after its $47.5 billion offer was rejected.

``I'm more puzzled by Microsoft's not going up to $37 than Yahoo's wanting to walk away,'' Miller said yesterday in an interview. Legg Mason is Yahoo's second-largest investor with 83.8 million shares as of December, or 6.3 percent of the total, Bloomberg data show.

Yahoo's demand for $5 billion more, or $37 a share compared with the offer of $33, equals 2 percent of Microsoft's market value -- little more than a daily fluctuation in its stock, Miller said. His $12.2 billion Legg Mason Value Trust in Baltimore posted its biggest quarterly drop since the period that ended in September 2001 on losses from Sprint Nextel Corp. and Bear Stearns Cos.

``If they want to be a viable competitor, I would expect them to come back,'' said Miller, 58, whose 15-year record of beating the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ended in 2006. ``Microsoft needs Yahoo much more than Yahoo needs Microsoft.''

Yahoo Chief Executive Officer Jerry Yang and his team now face more pressure to produce, said Miller, who was critical of the Sunnyvale, California-based Internet company's plan to work with Google Inc. on search advertising.

Yahoo fell the most in almost two years yesterday on the Nasdaq, after Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft dropped its offer. Today, the shares rose $1.35, or 5.5 percent, to $25.72 at 4 p.m. New York time, 34 percent above the $19.18 price before the bid.

Microsoft, the world's biggest software company, rose 62 cents to $29.70 while Google dropped $8.54 to $586.36.

Little to Lose

Abandoning the Yahoo bid was better for Microsoft than getting into a proxy fight, Miller said. A proxy battle would have resulted in internal chaos, he said.

``Microsoft loses very little by walking away for a while and seeing how much pressure, if any pressure, Yahoo's management might be under from shareholders,'' Miller said. ``If I'm sitting in their shoes, I'll go away and see what happens. I can come back and the worst case is, I'll pay six months more of my free cash flow.''

Together the two would be a ``more formidable'' rival to Google, the leader in Web search, Miller said. His $12.2 billion Value Trust is lagging behind the S&P 500 for a third straight year.

Sales Goals

In March, Yahoo laid out sales growth targets of $7.1 billion and $8.8 billion for 2009 and 2010, higher than analysts estimated, to justify its rejection of Microsoft's initial offer of $44.6 billion, or $31 a share. Yahoo pointed to operations in Asia, its No. 2 position in Web search and potential cost savings of the deal to show it was worth more.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said on May 3 he wasn't prepared to pay the $37 a share Yahoo executives demanded. Yahoo is in talks over a search-advertising arrangement with Mountain View, California-based Google, said two people familiar with the matter. An agreement could come as soon as this week, according to one of them.

Miller criticized Yang's decision to consider letting Google handle its search-advertising business. Yahoo introduced Project Panama last year to make search ads more relevant.

``That vitiates the Panama platform,'' Miller said. ``It would destroy the ecosystem of search.''

Miller also said a tie-up between Yahoo and Time Warner Inc.'s AOL, which Yang is considering, would have already happened if it were a compelling combination.

Now, it makes sense for Yahoo to use the $2 billion on its balance sheet to buy back shares, Miller said. The company announced a $3 billion repurchase in October 2006.

``It's a riskless transaction,'' he said. ``You have a couple billion of cash on your balance sheet and you generate a lot of free cash flow.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne ... SQHo&refer=home

财散人聚

原帖由 JeanGrey 于 5-4-2008 11:34 PM 发表
我倒对你说的CPO有些兴趣。原来你也是对CPO感觉到有Structural Change的高手。这个Structural Change我认为还属于初步，还没有进入稳定期，大众也还没有逐渐看到这一点，所以现在就要以这个切入点投资CPO related的公司，还是直接收购CPO的期货，我觉得还有点过早。当然，你也可以提供一些不同的看法，让我知道我的错误可以改进。看过了你也一些过去的posting，就知道你不是个简单的人物。

jeangrey, 你好。

请问这是不是你在等待的其中一个change of appraisal 呢？

在整个金融圈还未看到明显的 cpo structural change 之前，金融圈对油棕公司的change of appraisal 可能需要花上一段持续的时间。。。。这是不是你就算认为umcca有其基本价值，但还不想买进umcca股份的其中一个原因呢？？

[ 本帖最后由 财散人聚 于 9-5-2008 12:37 AM 编辑 ]

财散人聚

原帖由 secondbrother 于 7-5-2008 08:52 PM 发表
财兄，united malacca 卖掉 pacmas 是好事，猜会有 rm１。００ 的dividend 收。united malacca 一直以来都是 plantation company， pacmas 只是投资。

pacmas 是一间中规中举的 general insurer，没有了 pacific  ...

secondbrother, 你好。

刚刚查阅了umcca的大股东，最大的股东是MSIA NOM SB GREAT EASTERN LIFE ASSURANCE BHD。

这时候，才明白为什么一间plantation公司，会去投资pacmas，原来是为了要利用pacmas来后门上市（请原谅我的后知后觉，我还是蒙查查的学习者）

既然后门上市失败了，那么卖出一间中规中举的保险公司，是一个套回现金的好方法。。。。但是，如何运用这些多余的现金，又是另一个关键性的问题了。。。。。若果真的派出rm1.00的dividend，那么股东们肯定欣喜不已，也可能在短期内刺激umcca的股价。。。。这是不是你买入umcca的额外原因呢？?

当umcca的棕油步入黄金期，在cpo不大幅度滑落的情况下（不跌破lock in price的价格和棕油需求稳定），那么可以预期的是，每股盈余将会逐步上升。。。。。若果配合金融圈对整个棕油行业的change of appraisal，那么PEG是否就会实现呢？？

P/S:请问secondbrother, 若我想研究棕油公司的business model，那么，我应该从哪一方面着手呢？

[ 本帖最后由 财散人聚 于 9-5-2008 01:13 AM 编辑 ]

JeanGrey

1）United Malacca的Change of Appraisal会不会发生，你是否肯定知道？
2）如果会发生，你知道什么时候吗？
3）CPO的Structure Change，只是我们知道和看到吗？

Everything happens for a reason, if you are unable to tell the reason, then let the reason tell you what will happen later.

secondbrother

财兄，plantation 的 business model 通常是看最 efficient 的公司，看 yield of ffb 。为了成长，一般的公司都是增加 planting area，向上游和下游发展。

（disclaimer ：united malacca 只是我最小的投资）

我的切入点已说过了，是 rm１７００＋＋ 的 lock in price，其它的都是你说的 margin of safety，我说的保险。

悶蛋

再次重看这个帖,
配合老散所提醒我的时间损失,
我似乎领悟到了点模凌两可的东西,
这需要时间证明,
再次感谢各位高手的交流,
有你们真好

财散人聚

原帖由 JeanGrey 于 9-5-2008 03:19 PM 发表
1）United Malacca的Change of Appraisal会不会发生，你是否肯定知道？
2）如果会发生，你知道什么时候吗？
3）CPO的Structure Change，只是我们知道和看到吗？

Everything happens for a reason, if you are u ...

1）我不是很肯定知道。。。。
2）我没办法说出那个时间。。。。
3）不，很多人都知道。。。。只不过大家都不知道如何回答以上问题。。。。

So i decide to follow your way.......just let the times to tell us the story......

谢谢你，我又看到我另一个弱点了。。。。那就是对事对物都太主观了。。。。

财散人聚

原帖由 secondbrother 于 10-5-2008 10:28 PM 发表
财兄，plantation 的 business model 通常是看最 efficient 的公司，看 yield of ffb 。为了成长，一般的公司都是增加 planting area，向上游和下游发展。

（disclaimer ：united malacca 只是我最小的投资）

我的切入点已说过了，是 rm１７００＋＋ 的 lock in price，其它的都是你说的 margin of safety，我说的保险

谢谢你，secondbrother。。。。

我也在此申明， 本人也没有买入任何umcca的股份。。。。

我只是对change of appraisal 的讨论感到非常的有兴趣。。。。

财散人聚

这一系列的跌法，或多或少都过滤了一大半的鱼毛虾仔。。。。

jeangrey说的market efficiency的effects, 可以深深的体会的到。。。。

现在的市，不只efficient，而且有些时候还是overeact。。。。若果本身对某只股有几道margin of safety的防卫线，这个时候的市，该是一个大好机会的accumulative 的时机。。。。。

有人说，916 916 916，你不怕吗？？是。。。我的确有此忧虑。。。不过，要是大家都知道的事情，那么它的杀伤力至少都减半了。。。。。我较担心的事情倒是一些我看不见的东西。。。。

无论如何，在熊市的趋势下，cash 就是 king！！~~只要心里买入的因素不变，那么就可以在羊群困惑的时候，一举夺下高地。。。然后，等待下一个market efficiency反方向钟摆的到来，立旗胜利。。。。

财散人聚

原帖由 secondbrother 于 4-5-2008 01:54 PM 发表
财兄，cpo 会上或下，没有人可以猜得准。如果说没有人猜得准，那我们现在要投资这一类的公司应该用什么切入点呢？是要买采用卖 spot price 的公司吗？如果说 cpo rm3000＋＋ 是 over value了，cpo 的价钱调整，必然使这些公司盈利和股价下跌。

如果是 cpo 会跌，它的底线是在哪里？我的看法是 biodiesel 必须可行的价位那里。

二哥的分享，回头一看，真的有够震撼。。。。

在cpo大调整的跌势下，spot price的公司有如sime,IOI ，在cpo大调整的跌势下，纷纷一路退去，到了上个星期，才重新站稳脚步。。。。。而lock-term price的公司如umcca,虽有下跌，跌幅却是较轻微的。。。显然，这都是lock-term price的保护光环所致。。。。。

谢谢二哥让我看到和体会到真正的考验。。。。

ThermoFisher

“我较担心的事情倒是一些我看不见的东”

我也有同感。。。

财散人聚

原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 2-9-2008 08:09 AM 发表
“我较担心的事情倒是一些我看不见的东”

我也有同感。。。

嘻嘻，可能那就是我们的uncertainties和risks吧。。。。。

high uncertainties or risks = high returns!!~~

哈哈哈！！~~

[ 本帖最后由 财散人聚 于 2-9-2008 05:19 PM 编辑 ]

ThermoFisher

high uncertainties or risks = high return OR terrible loss ...

kiaoka

High uncertainties = Gamble

财散人聚

原帖由 kiaoka 于 2-9-2008 07:38 PM 发表
High uncertainties = Gamble

啊哈哈，那你可能就误解了high uncertainies的益处咯。。。。。

羊群惊慌的时候，只要你的眼睛是雪亮的，你的心是冰清的，那么high uncertainties 就不等于gambling咯。。。。

每个人都在期待916，期望有金拾。。。。。既然人都在股海里头了，那我就好好的，狠狠的上这一堂教训的课，去接受心与外界的大冲击吧。。。。啊哈哈哈！！~~

ThermoFisher

财兄有力拔山河的气势，小弟挺你，陪你抱股跟916死过。。

goodluck88

每个人都期待的时候....可能就没有"惊喜" 了哦.....