舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ? （八）

chukh1

原帖由 magnumao 于 6-4-2007 08:06 PM 发表

新手？还好啦，不敢讲自己新，更不敢讲自己行，还有很多要学就是了.


这好像就是8K前辈所做的，不是吗？


既然你都那么说了，我还是看帖就好了，因为这根本不是我的仗.
我想要表达的，就只是机会成本 ...

哈哈..8k 前辈的做法是他的投资风格啊..
每个人都有自己的投资哲学和风格吧..
8k 前辈的风格是不是就适合你呢? 你能够承受的风险是不是也一样呢?

哈哈..千万不要做羊牯!
decision making 怎样都必须经过自己的深思谋虑吧!哈哈!

100% 投资 not equal to 100% in megan..
哈哈! 我现在才看出问题..哈哈哈!
100% 投资是在整个portfolio...进可攻,退可守..
100% 投资是说投资在股市赚取高回酬,或者胜过大盘, 或者胜过通货膨胀!!
100% 投资不是叫你投资完在megan..

有了portfolio management 还有自己的资金控制, opp cost 的问题就解决啦!


[ 本帖最后由 chukh1 于 6-4-2007 08:58 PM 编辑 ]

magnumao

原帖由 chukh1 于 6-4-2007 08:12 PM 发表
哈哈..8k 前辈的做法是他的投资风格啊..
每个人都有自己的投资哲学和风格吧..
8k 前辈的风格是不是就适合你呢? 你能够承受的风险是不是也一样呢?

哈哈..千万不要做羊牯!
decision making 怎样都必 ...

多谢指点，小弟受教了

北风沙

原帖由 kitkatlow 于 6-4-2007 05:30 PM 发表
哈哈哈！！！
成交（丟）了這麽多，價格居然沒什麽動。。。

你了解了背後了意義了嗎？

意外的它没法托住,现在它有种就在这时候假装托不住,我就殺殺殺.:@

今天突然激增就这样多火啊,那再激一点可不得了.
好笑的是连挑瘾两大阿叔,比巴士四眼仔还搞笑.

北风沙

原帖由 chukh1 于 6-4-2007 08:12 PM 发表
100% 投资 not equal to 100% in megan..
哈哈! 我现在才看出问题..哈哈哈!
100% 投资是在整个portfolio...进可攻,退可守..
100% 投资是说投资在股市赚取高回酬,或者胜过大盘, 或者胜过通货膨胀!!
100% 投资不是叫你投资完在megan..

而要做到100%投资完在megan,就得计算自己的reward/risk ratio了,对否?

klse.8k

klse.8k：好久没和你通信了主要是最近生意比较忙，而且也开始觉得累了。megan该讨论的都讨论了，该设想的几乎都已经设想了，在过去4个月里已经不知不觉地买入了超过120k股了，感觉几乎已经将赌注越押越大，本来我识这个是个致富的难得机会，曾经想过将我全部本钱全押下去的。但是经过深思，和听你的意见，如果生意那里需要动用资金还是先投入哪里比较好。最近拿了屋子抵押给银行本来打算将这笔20万全押下去megan的（银行第一年的利率是2.99 而已，而且是flexi home 有钱可以一次过给完）但是经过了这次的成绩单不知道为何突然信心减少了，感觉上megan目前最大的问题是现金流~和利息支付的太高了!在profit margin 萎缩的当儿这情况更见显然易见的finance cost 占去了57%的盈利！接下来的7月份到期的回教债卷megan 该如何去面对呢？

回复：

身为生意人当然要优先考虑自己的生意，除非自己的生意不能扩充了，或者是不想扩充了，我们才可以为资金另寻出路，毕竟自己做生意是最快的致富途径。

但是，不是每个人都可以成为老板的，也不是每个人都想成为老板的，因为做生意的风险很大，所以还是有人宁愿安分守己的打工。
上班族只要懂得理财和投资，还是可以致富的。
除了自己做生意，产业和股票投资是最快的致富途径。

根据Megan最新的业绩，这九个月来它的Finance cost高达44.9 m （前期为32.5 m）。
而税前盈利是51.7 m（前期为53.1 m）。

乍看之下这是个退步的成绩，但是，经过深一层的研究我们就可以发现，最新的业绩其实是进步的，因为最新的九个月，Megan投资了260 m在新一代的机器，而这新一代的机器还没有正式投入生产。
（前期的账目没有这批机器）

以8%的利率来计算260 m的贷款，九个月的利息支出就是15.6 m。

如果没有添购新一代的机器，Megan最新九个月的Finance cost将是29.3 m
（因为44.9 m - 15.6 m = 29.3 m）
而税前盈利将是67.3 m
（因为51.7 m + 15.6 m = 67.3 m）

所以我认为，这个最新的业绩其实是进步的。

那么，即将到期的回教债券Megan该如何去面对呢？
我认为这问题管理层应该胸有成竹了，我们不需要去替它担心吧？
（印度大兄的出现，应该和这问题有关）

北风沙

原帖由 klse.8k 于 6-4-2007 09:20 PM 发表
如果没有添购新一代的机器，Megan最新九个月的Finance cost将是29.3 m
（因为44.9 m - 15.6 m = 29.3 m）
而税前盈利将是67.3 m
（因为51.7 m + 15.6 m = 67.3 m）

而如果九个月前用那260M来增加DVD生产线和生意额,减少外包:
那最新的九个月的Finance cost将是 44.9 m + ?? m = ?? m
而税前盈利将是51.7 m + ?? m = >51.7 m

或许会更好吧..

[ 本帖最后由 北风沙 于 6-4-2007 09:47 PM 编辑 ]

kitkatlow

好一句魚蝦蟹。。。

那我們是什麽？水魚？龍蝦？大閘蟹？

北风沙

Megan目前拥有40条生产线(CD&DVD),每条估计22.8m(DVD).
如果用那260m来买入CD和DVD生产线,每条22.8m的话,能买11.4条,就算12条.(或许更多,因为用DVD机器的价钱)

40条生产线能带来税前盈利51.7m的话,
那用很粗略的算法,加多12条的话就是15.51m

那51.7m是包括因为机器饱拿去外包所赚的"非常薄"盈利
如果能用那12条来自己生产的话,将能获取更大盈利和减少Finance cost.
当然那12条也会增加Finance cost,不过比起带来的盈利应该不足挂齿吧.

--------------------------------
目前的40条生产线能生产每月30m 红光碟.
而杨董大胆买入的蓝光生产线,完工后能生产3.5m蓝光碟,值得吗?来算算.

CD-R = USD0.15-0.25
DVD-R = USD0.40-0.60
BD-R = USD18.00-USD20.00
HD-DVD-R = USD18.00-USD20.00

估计30m是CD-R 10m+ DVD-R 20m,算低价的,就是USD 4.5m+USD 8m=每月USD 12.5m
而蓝光碟3.5M就是每月USD 63m,是现在红光碟的5.04倍!
不过这是营业额,不是赚幅.
这蓝光产品的赚幅达30-40%,红光产品的赚幅是20-30%.
所以正确来预测,Megan完全生产蓝光碟后的营业额是现在的5倍以上而赚幅将提高10%.
5倍好像夸张下,谁能确定我的预测?

如果杨董没胆去博蓝光,用260m来增加12条DVD生产线又如何?
估计有30条DVD机器每月生产20m,那12条就是8m.
8m的DVD-R就是每月USD 3.2m...而已!
(而且蓝光是博吗?!先做功课吧)

红光是USD 3.2m,蓝光是USD 63m,是你会选哪个?何况是杨董?
如果现在负债增加红光,迟点等蓝光普及后再负债增加蓝光,会有什么后果?
D/E增加,RAM降级,红光更薄利,营业额萎缩,机器更贬值等等..前途一片黑暗.
这就是把Megan营业额扩大10倍,还想更大的杨董,好的一面.

[ 本帖最后由 北风沙 于 6-4-2007 11:23 PM 编辑 ]

klse.8k

我也算到你的这条数学，而且我还看到一点，那就是Megan的债务要再次的膨胀了， 很快的它就会突破10亿的大关了。

为什么我会这样说呢？
因为增加营业额，Trade receivables就得增加，这是Megan的营业方式。

我估计开始阶段（2007年5月到7月），Megan每月可以生产100万片的新一代光碟，假设每片的价钱是10 USD，每月营业额就会增加35 m，放账3 个月就是105 m了，所以估计Trade receivables还会再增加100 m，从4亿变成5亿。
总债务也会从目前的接近9亿，变成超过10亿。
（不必担心没有银行要借钱给Megan，只要把Invoice拿去做 factoring就可以了）

Megan的营业方式与众不同，因为它的账目有庞大的Trade receivables，但是却只有微不足道的Trade payables。

一般的公司，Trade receivables和Trade payables都差不多，所以债务就不多。就算生意越做越大，Trade receivables和Trade payables都可以继续的膨胀，但是债务却不必跟着膨胀，所以账目就会很好看。

但是Megan却不同，它的营业额膨胀，它的Trade receivables就得跟着膨胀，因为它没有Trade payables来平衡。
所以账目就不讨人喜爱了。
也许就是这个原因，它的股价长期处于弱势。

我不关心股价，我只关心EPS。

如果新一代的光碟每月可以带来35 m的营业额，它就可以带来7 m的盈利（就赚20%吧！），每年就是84 m了。

2006财政年Megan的税前盈利是 86 m。
那么2008财政年它就可以取得170 m的税前盈利了。
（因为84 m + 86 m = 170 m)
税后盈利就是125 m，而EPS就是0.61了！
（假设它的股数还是保持在205 m）

考虑到这一点，我就不担心Megan的股价再跌了，因为目前它的股价只是0.61 而已，刚好是明年的1倍本益比。
（难道真的要跌破1倍的本益比？）

[ 本帖最后由 klse.8k 于 7-4-2007 12:32 AM 编辑 ]

8years

哇，投资260m就可以每年赚84m，这样好赚，为什么megan不会丢完其他机器而完全买进blue dvd机呢？？

难道blue dvd 就是megan翻身之战？

难怪各大厂商都要生产新一代dvd。

我不大相信会有这么好赚的生意。当大家都知道好赚时，这生意就不会好赚。。。。。

ZheHui

原帖由 klse.8k 于 7-4-2007 12:31 AM 发表
我也算到你的这条数学，而且我还看到一点，那就是Megan的债务要再次的膨胀了， 很快的它就会突破10亿的大关了。

为什么我会这样说呢？
因为增加营业额，Trade receivables就得增加，这是Megan的营业方式。
...

讚。我們想的就是要前輩您說出這些的思維。
暫時我還是保持我的看法。

謝謝。

8years

http://www.supermediastore.com/b ... media-recorder.html

blue ray DVD market price=USD17==>厂家price==〉30% of market price==> usd 4

3.5mil per month X usd4= usd14m MAXIMUM。

14 x 12 months=168mil x 0.4% profit= 70mil

260mil/70mil=4years take back capital

good invest IF all above etimate is true

8years

哦，对啦，叫megan卖完其他机器，就只是生产blue ray就可以了。

卖完其他机器，megan debt=260m only

margin profit 40%, 发达咯

8years

原帖由 北风沙 于 6-4-2007 11:22 PM 发表
Megan目前拥有40条生产线(CD&DVD),每条估计22.8m(DVD).
如果用那260m来买入CD和DVD生产线,每条22.8m的话,能买11.4条,就算12条.(或许更多,因为用DVD机器的价钱)

40条生产线能带来税前盈利51.7m的话,
那 ...

目前的40条生产线能生产每月30m 红光碟.

0.5usd selling price=factory selling price 0.15usd=0.15*3.5=RM0.45

==〉30m x 12months=360mil per year
==> 360 x RM0.5=180mil

那么megan如何来700mil turn over???

北风沙

啊...还能演变到这地步,要消化进我丹田了.

用最保守和最低的已有这样的估计,8年兄,我也有点不相信这爆发力.
难道...这乃震久仓之因?

tatuto

这就是用老板的思路去看待和投资生意。很多人都做不到。

回到来最原本的地方，未来BD和HD的市场将会如何。个人看发，不论谁胜出，都至少要两三年时间来普及化。我建议北风沙兄用两三年后的价格来算，我敢说，那时候BD和HD的价格绝对会至少降到USD１4左右。

因为普及化的时候也就是大众开始接受和价格降低的时候。到更加普及化时也就是大众更加接受和价格更低的时候。就好象七年前的DVD和七年后的DVD。

然后SONY TOSHIBA又开始研发更大容量和更高清的东西，美到好象电视里的人物会跳出来。

[ 本帖最后由 tatuto 于 7-4-2007 02:26 AM 编辑 ]

北风沙

原帖由 8years 于 7-4-2007 02:04 AM 发表

blue ray DVD market price=USD17==>厂家price==〉30% of market price==> usd 4

0.5usd selling price=factory selling price 0.15usd=0.15*3.5=RM0.45
==〉30m x 12months=360mil per year
==> 360 x RM0.5=180mil

那么megan如何来700mil turn over???

哦,难怪我会算到5倍了.
OEM retail prices不是MEGAN卖的价钱?那价格是1月份MACY给我的,跌价是肯定了.
能确定蓝光碟是USD4,DVD是USD0.15?

700M是包括了外包.

白狐狸

原帖由 北风沙 于 6-4-2007 11:22 PM 发表
如果杨董没胆去博蓝光,用。。。。
(而且蓝光是博吗?!先做功课吧)

愿闻其详，确实现在蓝光是占了优势，但好像还没鹿死谁手吧？
在下真的愿闻其详，并非讽刺或什么。
谢谢。

白狐狸

原帖由 tatuto 于 7-4-2007 02:23 AM 发表
这就是用老板的思路去看待和投资生意。很多人都做不到。

回到来最原本的地方，未来BD和HD的市场将会如何。个人看发，不论谁胜出，都至少要两三年时间来普及化。我建议北风沙兄用两三年后的价格来算，我敢说， ...

这也是我的忧患，不确定性太大了。煤岸在我的portfolio占了90%，慢慢将会降至40%左右。不能接受风险的年轻人我看我是其中的表表者。 ：）

白狐狸

business week

Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Price Matters
In the battle over next-gen DVDs, the winner may be decided more by price than by which format has the most backers

The war for dominance of the next-generation DVD market may be decided on price. Some analysts are betting that whichever format—HD DVD or Blu-ray—has the most players in stores for $500 or less in time for the holiday season will ultimately win over consumers. Everything else, including the movie studios that have already aligned with a particular format, will follow the money.

It may at first seem strange that the format competition would come down to price. High-definition discs are still relatively new, having made their debut, more or less, at the Consumer Electronics Show in January, 2006 (see BusinessWeek.com, 10/6/05, "Daggers Drawn over DVDs"). Typically, the early adopters who want the latest and greatest in home theater are more interested in having the best technology, even if it costs more.

The problem with HD DVD and Blu-ray is that there's no clear "best" format. The 2007 offerings in both camps let users make the most of their high-definition TV and audio systems. Both deliver a sharply detailed, color-rich picture and audio capable of making home theater sound like the real thing. Both have extra storage space for features such as multilanguage broadcasts, directors' cuts, and interactive menus (though Blu-ray has more storage capacity). And both have backing from major studios such as Warner Bros. (TWX). "There is not enough distinction between these two formats to justify that one should win," says Chris Crotty, senior consumer electronics analyst at iSuppli.
Price over Porn

And even though Blu-ray, championed by Sony (SNE), has more major movie studios in its camp, that alone is unlikely to give Blu-ray the edge, says James McQuivey, a principal analyst at Forrester Research (FORR). No major movie studio will ultimately refuse to support a format compatible with players being used by a significant slice of the potential audience, McQuivey says.

The same logic extends to HD DVD, which has won the support of the multibillion-dollar adult entertainment industry. There was early speculation that backing by adult film studios would decide the format wars, as arguably was the case in the battle between VHS and Betamax in the 1980s (see BusinessWeek.com, 1/22/07, "Next-Gen DVD's Porn Struggle"). However, with plenty of porn on the Internet available for download, the adult entertainment industry doesn't carry the weight it once did. "Now adult content is so widely available, I don't see it as important," says Steve Wilson, principal consumer electronics analyst at ABI Research.

Without a clear winner, consumers are confused. And confused consumers wait for clarity. If they don't get that, then they'll settle for cheap, says McQuivey. Buyers won't drop $800-plus on a 2007 model that may or may not support their favorite films in a few years. On the other hand, consumers might risk a few hundred dollars on the wrong format as long as they can play great movies for a year or two, says McQuivey. "Whoever gets below $500 might have a chance [to win] if it looks like the other guy isn't going to get there," says McQuivey. "People were waiting for a decision and, because there isn't a decision, they are waiting for price, so it doesn't matter if they make a bad decision."
Bypassing the DVD Route

Already, the HD DVD camp has players by Toshiba (TOSBF) in the $400 range. However, the 2007 HD DVD players—which are equipped with better processors and typically support significantly better audio formats—are priced several hundred dollars higher. And Blu-ray players are, on average, more expensive still. A notable exception is Sony's PlayStation 3, which supports Blu-ray discs and is available in the $400 range. Yet it has not sold enough to be a real deciding factor. Neither has the $200 HD DVD player that attaches to Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox 360 player, says McQuivey.

Some consumers are bypassing the DVD route altogether, downloading high-definition videos right off the Internet, says McQuivey. While the number of people downloading high-definition content is still small, it could grow as computers become faster and devices such as Apple's (AAPL) TV set-top box make it easier for consumers to beam downloaded files to a TV. The warring formats "have spent so much time and effort fighting each other and they should be battling their common enemy, which is online delivery," Crotty says.

Instead of fighting at all, some companies such as LG Electronics (LGERF) and Warner Bros. are choosing to bridge the gap between the two formats, making players and discs, respectively, that will support both formats (see BusinessWeek.com, 3/28/07, "The Best of Both High-Def Worlds") . The hybrid approach may ultimately win—if the companies supporting it can develop compatible players and discs for a sufficiently low price. Ultimately, iSuppli's Crotty believes that the dual-format supporters will succeed in the price competition, developing players for a couple hundred more than the single-format players. He notes, "a lot of savvy people will be willing to spend a bit more to get something that is future-proof."

Click here to see a slide show of reviews of next-generation DVD players.

Holahan is a writer for BusinessWeek.com in New York.