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发表于 2-4-2007 11:48 AM
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发表于 2-4-2007 11:52 AM
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klse.8k 发表于 14-9-2006
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Megan就是这样子，它只有100个大客户，每个都很能吃货，所以它的trade receivables超大。
根据Megan的年报（4/2006）：
它的机器是6.61亿，而trade & other receivables却是5.63亿，而总负债是8.40亿。
Harimau有说过，一位能够吃货几个container的商人要跟Megan买货，Megan还不想做他的生意呢。
（从这点就可以看出，Megan的客户都是不简单的）
如果有一天，Megan的trade receivables突然变小了，那么就是坏消息了，因为它的大客户已经跑掉了！
所以我从来都不担心Megan超大的trade receivables。
看看最新的季报告，机器是5.89亿（贬值掉了），trade & other receivables是6.91亿，总负债高达10.04亿。
还有，其inventories相对的激增了约3倍（1.25亿）。
cash flow来看，这季的确是缺钱的（负0.27亿）。
以上现象说明了什么？是否是因为生意太好而继续举债？ |
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发表于 2-4-2007 12:34 PM
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发表于 2-4-2007 01:11 PM
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其实业绩不好才有人抄。等炒的朋友应该高兴。账目是人做的，通常炒家等差业绩后，就炒高。然后megan就负责下一季出好业绩报告，那么炒家就可以满载而归了。不过有没有炒家就不知了。 |
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发表于 2-4-2007 01:17 PM
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还有一点比较严重：
3个月turn over 306150
但是trade recieveable==430354.
会不会是120天也收不回帐？？？
如果放账60天，那么306150*0。6=180000吧。。。。。
如果放账120天，那么306150*1。2=460000。。。。。 |
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发表于 2-4-2007 01:26 PM
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原帖由 jackphang 于 1-4-2007 08:22 PM 发表
我所知道的是它的rating上次已经调整了，可能需要北风沙大大确认一下。
通常跟人家借钱就需要遵守一些条例,比如：
1。debt ratio 必须保持一定水平。
我不是很清楚它的条例，不知哪位大大可以详细解释
我可以说说我所明白的。
2006年9月, MEGAN宣布将会更改回教债券内的条例（她因此聘请BinaFikir为她的财政顾问）。
9／11／2006，MEGAN回教债券的修订完成了。
修订的条例有：
1. Financial covenants of the BBA Serial Bonds shall be revised as follows:
Year 1
Total Debt/Equity ratio Not exceeding 1.70:1
Total Debt/EBITDA ratio Not exceeding 2.50:1
Year 2
Total Debt/Equity ratio Not exceeding 2.00:1
Total Debt/EBITDA ratio Not exceeding 4.25:1
Year 3 to 7
Total Debt/Equity ratio Not exceeding 1.80:1
Total Debt/EBITDA ratio Not exceeding 3.50:1
2. MTSB has the right but not the obligation to redeem in part or in full the outstanding BBA Serial Bonds at par prior to its maturity on two (2) redemption dates, i.e. on 27 April 2007 and/or 26 October 2007.
3. Any funds raised from any equity issuance by MTSB and/or Megan Media Holdings Berhad (being the Guarantor) on or prior to 26 October 2007 shall be used for the early redemption of BBA Serial Bonds.
为了让回教债券的投资者同意这些条例的修订，MEGAN给与更高的利息。
MTSB has agreed to reward the holders of the BBA Serial Bonds by issuing promissory notes as a gift / "hibah" arising from the willingness of the holders of the BBA Serial Bonds to consent to the Proposed BBA Serial Bonds Restructuring.
Series Hibah Amount(for period effective 10 Nov 2006 up to end of Year 2)
1 1.25% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
2 1.50% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
3 2.00% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
4 2.50% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
5 2.70% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
6 2.85% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
Series Hibah Amount(for Year 3 onwards)
1 －（第一笔的债券应已被还清）
2 2.50% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
3 3.00% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
4 3.50% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
5 3.70% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
6 3.85% p.a. of Primary BBA Serial Bonds
The Hibah Bonds shall, upon issue, not be detachable from the Primary BBA Serial Bonds and shall cease to exist or be valid upon redemption of the corresponding Primary BBA Serial Bonds.
我相信这些修订后的条例（特别是MEGAN有权利于27／4／2007和26／10／2007还清部分或所有回教债券；MEGAN于26／10／2007之前的筹资只能用来清还回教债券）和最近MEGAN的坏消息，MEGAN股价的打压，是有关联的。在BINAFIKIR的往站，有提到：
＂The revised structure of the BaIDS was highly innovative as it involved new step-up coupons and buyback call options. These were achieved via our very own, in-house developed “hibah” (or gift) structure which is a ‘first-of-its-kind’ in Malaysia. "
PS: MEGAN回教债券内的原来条例:
i) Establishment of a Finance Service Reserve Account (“FSRA”), which will capture the principal and coupon payments of issued
BaIDS, in advance. The FSRA will capture the amount equivalent to the next principal and/or coupon payments of the outstanding BaIDS,
3 months prior to their respective due dates.
ii) Maximum ratio for total debt to operating profit before depreciation, interest and tax (“OPBDIT”) of 2.5 times, to be met at all times.
iii) Maximum total debt to equity ratio of 1.7 times for FY Apr 2006 and FY Apr 2007;
1.5 times for FY Apr 2008;
1.2 times for FY Apr 2009;
and 1.0 time for FY Apr 2010 and beyond, to be met at all times.
iv) Capital expenditure to be capped at RM550 million throughout the tenure of the BaIDS.
v) Dividend payments cannot exceed 20% of the Group’s net profit.
PS2:
MEGAN是于2005年10月发行RM320mil的回教债券：
Tenure Coupon Rate(%) Maturity Date Amounts (RM)
2 5.45 26 October 2007 40 million
3 5.85 28 October 2008 40 million
4 6.35 28 October 2009 40 million
5 6.75 28 October 2010 60 million
6 7.05 28 October 2011 70 million
7 7.25 26 October 2012 70 million
原文可参考：
1. https://fast.bnm.gov.my/fastweb/public/PublicInfoServlet.do?chkBox=2006110900024&mode=DISPLAY&info=NEWS
2. http://www.binafikir.com/3-mmh.html
3. RAM Credit Rating Report:
http://www.meganmedia.com.my/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=114&Itemid=176#
4. Megan Annual Report 2006
[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 3-4-2007 09:55 AM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2-4-2007 02:00 PM
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2006 rm'000
Revenue 1,034,797
Inventories 43,424
Trade and other receivables 562,760
Non-current assets 726,560
Current assets 671,534
Total assets 1,398,094
Current liabilities 330,236
Long term and deferred liabilities 597,153
Total liabilities 927,389
Shareholder's funds 470,705
Net profit 60,234
Share capital 205,576
Prices (rm) 0.64
eps (rm) 0.29
nta (rm) 2.29
roe 13%
pe 2
current ratio 2.03
quick ratio 1.9
average collection period 198.5 days
inventory turnover 23.83 times
total asset turnover 0.74 times
debt ratio 0.66
debt-to-equity 197%
net profit margin 5.82%
roi/roa 4.31%
[ 本帖最后由 sambora 于 2-4-2007 02:09 PM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2-4-2007 02:13 PM
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发表于 2-4-2007 02:19 PM
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以下为Megan-WA每月总成交量。
月份 成交量(Lot) 最高闭市价 最底闭市价
01/2006-- 175670-- RM0.19-- RM0.13
02/2006-- 99077-- RM0.17-- RM0.14
03/2006-- 76866-- RM0.17-- RM0.13
04/2006-- 92857-- RM0.18-- RM0.14
05/2006-- 142938-- RM0.23-- RM0.17
06/2006-- 10638-- RM0.20-- RM0.16
07/2006-- 28759-- RM0.20-- RM0.15
08/2006-- 18140-- RM0.15-- RM0.14
09/2006-- 13445-- RM0.16-- RM0.14
10/2006-- 14157-- RM0.17-- RM0.14
11/2006-- 56121-- RM0.17-- RM0.14
12/2006-- 77497-- RM0.19-- RM0.15
01／2007－－ 109766-- RM0.19-- RM0.17
02／2007－－ 293268-- RM0.38-- RM0.17
03／2007－－ 203624-- RM0.27-- RM0.18
2007年以来MEGAN-WA总交易量达到60.7mil股 (MEGAN-WA的outstanding share=71.1mil)。
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
以下为Megan每月总成交量。
月份 成交量(Lot) 最高闭市价 最底闭市价
01/2005-- 141822-- RM1.46-- RM1.37
02/2005-- 24601-- RM1.43-- RM1.37
03/2005-- 38467-- RM1.34-- RM1.23
04/2005-- 31696-- RM1.26-- RM1.22
05/2005-- 34990-- RM1.22-- RM1.04
06/2005-- 96331-- RM1.09-- RM1.00
07/2005-- 117158-- RM1.23-- RM1.04
08/2005-- 34045-- RM1.22-- RM1.07
09/2005-- 26687-- RM1.10-- RM1.05
10/2005-- 39766-- RM1.09-- RM1.01
11/2005-- 39326-- RM1.05-- RM0.96
12/2005-- 18259-- RM0.96-- RM0.94
01/2006-- 265456-- RM0.76-- RM0.57
02/2006-- 171112-- RM0.68-- RM0.61
03/2006-- 111049-- RM0.68-- RM0.61
04/2006-- 142399-- RM0.70-- RM0.65
05/2006-- 266351-- RM0.81-- RM0.67
06/2006-- 36012-- RM0.74-- RM0.64
07/2006-- 88470-- RM0.75-- RM0.65
08/2006-- 217696-- RM0.62-- RM0.57
09/2006-- 60525-- RM0.65-- RM0.56
10/2006-- 68182-- RM0.66-- RM0.62
11/2006-- 102438-- RM0.64-- RM0.60
12/2006-- 106406-- RM0.70-- RM0.58
01／2007－－ 221283-- RM0.71-- RM0.64
02／2007－－ 355744-- RM0.82-- RM0.63
03／2007－－ 482603-- RM0.64-- RM0.58
2007年以来MEGAN总交易量达到106mil股，已是MEGAN的outstanding share (205mil)的一半。 |
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发表于 2-4-2007 02:54 PM
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除了reuters， BRAHMAL成为MEGAN大股东的消息于21／3／2007传遍世界各媒体:
Asian economic and corporate news summary
March 21, 2007: 06:35 AM EST
Brahmal buys 5.38 pct stake in Megan Media; becomes major shareholder
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-15379768.htm
AFX News Limited
Asian economic and corporate news summary
03.21.07, 6:35 AM ET
-Brahmal buys 5.38 pct stake in Megan Media; becomes major shareholder
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/03/21/afx3536581.html
BEIJING, Mar 21, 2007 (XFN-ASIA via COMTEX) --A summary of Malaysian economic and corporate news at 1000GMT
-Brahmal buys 5.38 pct stake in Megan Media; becomes major shareholder
http://news.tradingcharts.com/forex/3/1/90896813.html
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
一些疑问：
1. TAONLINE的消息来源应该也与他们一样（因为新闻同时于21／3／2007刊登）；为何TAONLINE不用BURSA为消息来源？
2. BRAHMAL成为MEGAN大股东的消息很有新闻价值吗？他们为何要报导，MEGAN不过是一间马来西亚的公司。还是其实是BRAHMAL很有新闻价值？反而国内报帐一个字也没提这新闻。
3. BRAHMAL于成为MEGAN大股东的第二天卖出一些股份，不再是大股东的新闻。他们为何不报导呢？ |
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发表于 2-4-2007 03:01 PM
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发表于 2-4-2007 03:47 PM
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发表于 2-4-2007 04:19 PM
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原帖由 大棵呆 于 2-4-2007 03:47 PM 发表
你也说我笨吗?
 反過來講啦。 |
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发表于 2-4-2007 04:21 PM
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原帖由 jackphang 于 1-4-2007 08:22 PM 发表
我所知道的是它的rating上次已经调整了，可能需要北风沙大大确认一下。
10/11/06
出自RAM的报告,把Megan的回教债券评级由稳定(STABIL)调降为负面(NEGATIVE). |
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发表于 2-4-2007 04:26 PM
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回复 #1275 北风沙 的帖子
RAM是于25／7／2006把Megan的回教债券评级由稳定(STABIL)调降为负面(NEGATIVE).
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Institution Memory Tech Sdn Bhd
Headlines RAM revises rating outlook on Memory Tech’s BaIDS, from stable to negative
Date Announced 25 July 2006
RAM has revised the rating outlook on Memory Tech Sdn Bhd’s (“MTSB” or “the Company”) RM320 million Bai’ Bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt Securities (2005/2012) (“BaIDS”), from stable to negative. The BaIDS is currently rated A2 by RAM and carries a corporate guarantee from MTSB’s holding company, Megan Media Holding Berhad (“Megan Media” or “the Group”). As MTSB is the main contributor of the Group’s earnings, the rating essentially mirrors Megan Media’s business and financial profiles.
The negative outlook reflects RAM’s concerns about Megan Media’s rising debts to support its capital spending and the prevailing industry depression. The increase in borrowings has resulted in a lower-than-expected debt coverage ratio, and could lead to non-compliance of 2 financial covenants in the Trust Deed for the BaIDS (depending on the interpretation of specific key clauses in the Trust Deed). It is noted that the management is currently in negotiations with the BaIDS holders to address this issue prior to the release of its financial statements for FYE 30 April 2006 (“FY Apr 2006”), so as to avoid an event of non-compliance altogether.
Additionally, the squeeze in the Group’s margins reflected the dynamism and volatility of the blank-data-storage media industry, which offers less comfort vis-a-vis the stability of Megan Media’s earning capacity. Megan Media could also embark on more aggressive capital spending to fuel its expansion into HD-DVD and Blu-Ray technologies, which may yield higher margins.
Financially, Megan Media performed well in FY Apr 2006 and was able to meet RAM’s earlier expectations. It posted a RM249.64 million operating profit before depreciation, interest and tax (“OPBDIT”) on the back of RM1.03 billion of revenue. That said, RAM notes that the global blank-data-storage media industry remains volatile and fast-paced, thus exposing Megan Media to industry fluctuations. This was evident from the numerous challenges faced by the Group in FY Apr 2006 (e.g. increases in polycarbonate prices and lower average selling prices for DVD-Rs due to global oversupply).
Meanwhile, Megan Media’s borrowings increased to RM838.91 million as at end-FY Apr 2006 from RM647.16 million a year earlier, well above the peak of RM700 million that had been anticipated for the tenure of the BaIDS (This is not an imposed limit nor a covenant of any lender to Megan Media). The additional debt, mainly utilised for the purchase of new plants and machinery as well as for working capital, had augmented the Group’s ratio on total debt to equity to 1.78 times, while pushing up its ratio on total debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (“EBITDA”) to 3.35 times. Megan Media is currently considering options to reduce its debt burden; RAM will closely monitor further developments on this matter.
RAM notes that the rating outlook could be revised to stable if the Group successfully reduces its gearing level and the industry shows sign of recovery. On the other hand, the rating could be lowered if Megan Media’ s net debt continues to rise and its debt-protection measures weaken as a result of increased capital spending.
Analyst:
Kevin Lim
(603) 7628 1034
[email protected]
http://www.ram.com.my/custom.cfm?name=press.cfm&id=1403
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
31-07-2006: Megan Media mulls options to cut debts
By Kevin Tan
Megan Media Holding Bhd is mulling over fund raising options in order to pare debts after Ratings Agency Malaysia Bhd (RAM) warned that the company may not be able to fulfill its Islamic bond obligations, sources said.
A source said the amount to be raised had yet to be decided, but “it would have to be a sizeable amount to reduce gearing.” Sources said the issuance of equity-linked instruments was just one of its options.
As at April 30, 2006, Megan Media’s borrowings rose to RM838.91 million from RM647.16 million a year earlier.
Last Tuesday (July 25), RAM revised the outlook on Megan Media subsidiary Memory Tech Sdn Bhd’s RM320 million Bai’ Bithaman Ajil Islamic debt securities (2005/2012) (BaIDS) from stable to negative.
The BaIDS is currently rated A2 by RAM and carries a corporate guarantee from Megan Media. RAM said Megan Media incurred additional debts to buy new plants and machinery as well as for working capital.
As a result, its total debt-to-equity ratio had increased to 1.78 times while its total debt-to-earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to 3.35 times.
RAM said the increase in borrowings had resulted in a lower-than-expected debt coverage ratio, which could lead to non-compliance of two financial convenants in the trust deed for the BaIDS.
A source said the company was still talking with its bondholders on the matter. “There is no conclusion yet but they have indicated their willingness to resolve the issue,” the source said.
The source said the company wants to finalise the matter by next month when it is due to release the audited financial statements for the financial year ending April 30, 2006.
RAM also noted that while Megan Media performed well in FY06 and was able to meet its earlier expectations, the global blank-data storage media industry remains volatile and fast-paced.
It said this exposed the company to industry fluctuations, which were evident in the numerous challenges such as increases in polycarbonate prices and lower average selling prices for digital video-recordables due to global oversupply.
http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... a-1b483920-eb76079c |
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发表于 2-4-2007 04:38 PM
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回复 #1276 Mr.Business 的帖子
抱歉,抄错了,那是另一媒体的迟消息.
25/07/06
大马评估机构(RAM)将Megan旗下MEMORY TECH的3.2亿回教债券的评估,由稳定(STABIL)调降为负面(NEGATIVE)
Megan已由去年的6.47亿增加到8.39亿.
根据RAM机构说法,Megan因增加厂房及机械,导致资本负债率(D/E)上升到1.78倍. |
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发表于 2-4-2007 04:54 PM
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原帖由 北风沙 于 2-4-2007 04:38 PM 发表
抱歉,抄错了,那是另一媒体的迟消息.
25/07/06
大马评估机构(RAM)将Megan旗下MEMORY TECH的3.2亿回教债券的评估,由稳定(STABIL)调降为负面(NEGATIVE)
Megan已由去年的6.47亿增加到8.39亿.
根据RAM机构说法 ...
如果megan在继续借钱扩充的话，就会有财务危机-〉现金流过低。如果d/e ratio 持续升高， 那么， 利息就要付给更多。 我相信管理层不会不明白这一点，问题是，他们利用扩大receivables来提高盈利的做法不能够带来任何现金流的效应。
令人担心。
[ 本帖最后由 jackphang 于 2-4-2007 04:55 PM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2-4-2007 05:03 PM
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回复 #1278 jackphang 的帖子
的确.
如果管理层让RAM的评估恶化,将不会是件好消息. |
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发表于 2-4-2007 07:55 PM
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原帖由 北风沙 于 2-4-2007 05:03 PM 发表
的确.
如果管理层让RAM的评估恶化,将不会是件好消息.
8k前辈的报告如何？ |
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发表于 2-4-2007 08:22 PM
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原帖由 sambora 于 2-4-2007 07:55 PM 发表
8k前辈的报告如何？
还未出,我也在等. |
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