【EVERGRN 5101 交流专区】长青纤维板

os

原帖由 草下飞 于 9-7-2009 09:22 AM 发表
"大马木材业將更注重如何为木材增值，而非纯粹出售砍伐的原木"
据我所知，evergreen除了生产pure MDF，目前也积极扩充value added MDF，veneer等，因为这些赚副比较高。。。

你对大马木材业相当了解，不知你对上游有什么看法吗？
例如大马和印尼等国的 extraction quota...
和哪一个上游伐木工业, 或哪一个下游家具业比较好呢？

草下飞

原帖由 os 于 7-10-2009 11:29 PM 发表
这个投资，消耗了我不少时间和子弹。
原来我两年前就开始买进他，然后陆续收票，可以说从最高买到最低到反弹。。。
如今看来，有可能的结果是：赔了时间，赢了耐力。

以前我总是看很多财务数据，而忽略了真正 ...

谢谢分享。。。还有，希望你除了赢了耐力，也赢了金币

草下飞

原帖由 os 于 7-10-2009 11:33 PM 发表

你对大马木材业相当了解，不知你对上游有什么看法吗？
例如大马和印尼等国的 extraction quota...
和哪一个上游伐木工业, 或哪一个下游家具业比较好呢？

其实我谈不上对木材业有很深的了解，只是我比较关注evergreen的动向和未来的进展罢了。
说到上游伐木业好，还是下游加工业比较好，我觉得没有绝对，最重要是要有好的公司。
所谓行行出状元，只要拥有良好的管理层和积极的企业扩充，每一行业都可以成为会生金蛋的母鸡，对吗？
老实说，evergreen我也是在几年前就开始留意它。2007年尾-2009的经济萧条对它的打击，让其股价受到相当大程度上的影响。可是如果有留意的话，在这段期间，许多同行都频频亏损，而evergreen只是少赚了，起码还维持了盈利。这是非常难得的。在这期间，公司也不断的想方法节源，如自己生产glue resin、建了发电厂自供电流和减薪等等。

草下飞

行家论股:经济前景改善 长青纤维板明年产能料达80% 2009/10/28 17:33:47
●南洋商报

随着全球经济复苏，长青纤维板（Evergrn，5101，主板工业产品股）截至2009年10月止，产能恢复至80%，接近过去5年来平均达85%至90%的产能，该公司有信心其在2010财年内的产能将达80%。


拉昔胡申研究分析员说，同时，继令吉对美元增值后，中密度人造纤维制成板（MDF） 的价格将于2009年12月再上涨5至10%。

此外，分析员说，即便原油价格回温，但是，天然气价格仍然处于低水平，因为供应多过需求，因此，近期内，该公司的黏胶价格不会大幅上扬。

他说，基于上述因素前景改善，他们上调该公司2009财年至2011财年的收益预测28至40%。惟主要风险包括（一）木材成本激烈上涨、（二）中密度人造纤维制成板价格大幅下滑、（三）原油价格上涨导致黏胶及运输成本上涨、及（四）令吉增值降低该公司竞争力。

分析员维持该公司“超越大市”的评级，但基于收益上调，合理价格上修至1.55令吉。

草下飞

最近evergreen价量齐升，看样子好像有基金在收票。。。昨天最高去到RM1.40。。。看样子涨势还会继续随着公司前景看俏而挺进。。。细佬我拿定凳子等看戏。。。

hdcyng

Company Name	:	EVERGREEN FIBREBOARD BERHAD
Stock Name	:	EVERGRN
Date Announced	:	16/11/2009

Financial Year End	:	31/12/2009
Quarter	:	3
Quarterly report for the financial period ended	:	30/09/2009
The figures	:	have not been audited

Converted attachment :

Please attach the full Quarterly Report here:

Remark:

• DEFAULT CURRENCY
• OTHER CURRENCY

Currency	:	Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30/09/2009

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD	CUMULATIVE PERIOD
	CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30/09/2009	30/09/2008	30/09/2009	30/09/2008
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	211,895	193,204	547,369	558,718
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	31,435	13,421	46,234	67,922
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	30,248	13,990	43,113	68,953
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	30,917	16,206	45,820	72,271
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	6.03	3.37	8.93	15.05
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	1.3000		1.2000

草下飞

这一季的成绩果然如我所预测的，大大有所提升。。。
看来第四季的成绩也不会令我失望

草下飞

因经济萧条，去年的evergreen业绩不佳，尤其是最后两季。。。
刚看了去年全年的eps是16。42。。。以目前的mdf售价和工厂生产占用率来看，从之前的50+%到后来60+% & 70+%。。。相信第四季有可能会达到80%以上。。。如果能回到08年以前的85-90%的生产占用率。。。接下来的收入会很客观。。。问题是，mdf的需求增长会持续吗？这值得深入研究。。。

可是第四季应该会有比第三季更好的成绩。。。保守估计有8 sen eps... 8+8.93 = 16.93...已经比去年的total eps 好了。。。

至于2010， 2011。。。 如果看好经济复苏，房地产蓬勃。。。evergreen的前途还是后市看好。。。

草下飞

A Strong Second Half

Evergreen Fibreboard’s (EFB) posted a strong set of 3Q results which boosted its
9MFY09 YTD net profits to be equal to our full year expectations although revenue
only accounted for 79% of our full year forecast. The better bottom-line was achieved
on the back of higher average selling prices and lower raw material prices, which
boosted operating margins. The strong 3QFY09 performance prompted us to revise
upwards our FY09 and FY10 net earnings estimates by 69.4% and 48.2%
respectively. Subsequently, we derive a higher target price for EFB of RM1.62 from
RM1.05 previously. Our BUY recommendation is maintained.

Cumulative results dragged down by 1H. EFB’s 9MFY09 performance was still
lackluster as revenue was flat, dipping slightly by 2% due to the poor 1H results. Together
with the low average selling prices for its MDF products during the first half of this year, its
earnings were weaker as net profits declined by 36.6%.

Strong quarterly rebound. Fundamentals, however, are improving as EFB saw a huge
expansion in q-o-q earnings at all levels. On the back of higher sales stemming from the
acquisition of Hume Fibreboard, the commencement of a third manufacturing line in
Thailand and an increase in average selling prices by approximately 5% q-o-q, group
revenue surged 17.3%. Net profits also expanded by 200% as a combination of lower raw
material prices - namely glue and rubber wood - led to an expansion in EBITDA margins
from 13.6% to 21%. On its website, the company said as at the month of August this year,
y-o-y prices for glue and rubber wood (for the processing of MDF) declined by some 50%
and 31.5% respectively.

A turnaround in sight. Although EFB’s YTD earnings are still weaker y-o-y, with the 3 fold
increase in profits q-o-q, we reckon a potentially strong 4Q will strengthen earnings to help
the group finish with a flat y-o-y performance. On the improvement in the global economy,
which will in turn spur sales, we are revising upwards our revenue estimates for EFB by
17.1% and 18.2% for FY09 and FY10 respectively. Factoring in the cost cutting measures
and higher selling prices, our net earnings are also revised upwards by 69.4% and 48.2%
for the respective years. An upward earnings revision bumps up our target price for EFB to
RM1.62 from RM1.05 previously. On grounds of more robust sentiment, EFB may also
declare a final dividend in the next quarter. We see EFB potentially paying dividends
amounting to 4.2 sen p/s in 4Q, compared with our expectation of no dividend previously.
BUY recommendation maintained.

草下飞

果然如我所说的，evergreen outplayed其他较弱的mdf生产商。。。
许多公司不能在低潮时控制现金流和成本，逐渐退出游戏。。。

Survival of the fittest. We had previously highlighted that Evergreen’s strategy during the economic slowdown
was to be as lean as possible in its operations and to conserve its cash as much as possible, while waiting for the
weaker industry players to be knocked out either via closures of plants or via sale to other stronger players. This
strategy continues to pay off, as Evergreen continues to gain market share despite customer inventory levels
remaining at the lower-end of the spectrum. Together with Evergreen’s higher service quality i.e. shorter
delivery time and providing full-fledged MDF products, we understand that some of the MDF distributors have
switched to Evergreen, after their previous suppliers were unable to meet their demands. We also understand
that the European MDF players have temporarily pulled out from the Middle East market (which was previously being shared by both European and Asian MDF players) as current selling prices were still below their production
cost, thus, leading to increasing market share for Evergreen from the Middle East market.

siaolee2000

回复 1230# 草下飞


    长青股价近期节节败退，老板你如何看？

ljlq

回复  草下飞


    长青股价近期节节败退，老板你如何看？
siaolee2000 发表于 15-12-2009 04:09 PM

股市如波浪，有上有下。不像建高楼，只有越建越高

草下飞

股市如波浪，有上有下。不像建高楼，只有越建越高
ljlq 发表于 15-12-2009 07:47 PM

这位老板前半段道出我想说的，哈哈。。。
可是后半段我不敢苟同。。。因为好股放长来看，真的就好像建高楼，越建越高，哈哈。。。

ljlq

这位老板前半段道出我想说的，哈哈。。。
可是后半段我不敢苟同。。。因为好股放长来看，真的就好像 ...
草下飞 发表于 13-1-2010 11:52 AM

老板你好{:3_84:} 我是小虾一位。。

经你那么一说也有道理。
股价如波浪，买对股，财富如建高楼

草下飞

老板你好 我是小虾一位。。

经你那么一说也有道理。
股价如波浪，买对股，财富如建高楼{ ...
ljlq 发表于 13-1-2010 08:41 PM

哈哈，我不是老板。。我只是虾米罢了。。。
昨天的evergreen突然涨很多，我还没去了解到底是什么事情。。。

不过老板，我还蛮喜欢你这句：
“你的时间在哪里，财富就在哪里，留连于太多的选择和诱惑，往往徒劳而返，一无所成。”

siaolee2000

回复 1235# 草下飞


    老板，在你心目中还有那只股是好股？

dennisyap

回复 1235# 草下飞


    Evergreen is quite a good stock.  From their Q3 result their net profit/sales improve to 14.27%.
    ROE (annualize total 3 quarters) is 8.59%.   Sales improve a lot and interest coverage around 8 times.
    Debt / Asset (3Q) below 50%.    Hongleong group still hold around 5%.  Their major shareholding still hold
    their share, it means they are quite confident of the future of this company.  
    If the worldwide economic keep improving it will be good as well.

    Recently rubber glove stock has been chasing by investors and increase quite a lot, if the whole market still      keep the momentum to move higher, then is the turn for steel industry and timber related industry.  Semicon or hightech industry also can be monitored.  Personnally i like P.I.E Industrial.

kk66

evergreen 1.68

iamnotgal2

最近evergreen股价随波败退，提供我继续买进的机会。以下是nanyang有关evergreen最新的新闻。

降低成本提高赚幅 长青纤维板净收益上调
2010/04/19 7:07:59 PM
●南洋商报

（吉隆坡19日讯）由于销售量更高使得收益改善，加上去年开始实施的降低成本措施奏效提高了营运赚幅，分析员上调长青纤维板（Evergrn，5101，主板工业产品股）2010财年及2011财年的净收益35%至45%。

与此同时，该公司股目标价格也将从每股1.62令吉，上调至每股2.08令吉，投资评级为“买入”。

侨丰投资研究分析员指出，该公司销售量自去年年初就开始呈扬势。2009年第一季，本地工厂的使用率已经达到50%的收支平衡水平，接下来的数个季度内订单持续增加，工厂使用率也上涨至约80%。

同时，分析员披露，基于区域内对于中密度纤维板的渴望，需求料在2010财年内保持在稳健水平直至2011财年。

另一方面，分析员指出，尽管原料价格于今年年初呈扬势，该公司管理层相信橡胶木的成本依然受到控制。而大雨导致木材供应短缺使得价格激涨，仅属短暂问题。

此外，分析员透露，由于该公司以低于市场10%的成本生产黏胶，黏胶成本也将保持在可承受的水平。

风云888

各位大大，这只股从2000年到现在有给过股息吗？