|
|
发表于 18-9-2009 10:27 AM
|
显示全部楼层
OSK INVESTMENT RESEARCH
September 17, 2009
Costlier Pulp to Crimp Margins
On clarification with the management, we note that the higher 1QFY10 revenue and earnings were mainly driven by: (i) higher selling prices, and (ii) lower pulp prices. However, as pulp prices have been rising since March, we believe the increase is likely to be reflected in the company’s 3Q numbers. To err on the side of conservatism, we have adjusted downwards our FY10 and FY11 earnings forecasts by 3% to 15% after factoring in higher capex and pulp prices assumptions. Despite the 13% downside compared with our TP of RM0.50, we maintain a NEUTRAL recommendation on the stock as we believe that the decent dividend yield of ~5% would mitigate the downside risk.
A recap of 1QFY10 Results. On clarification with the management following the release of the company’s 1QFY10 results, we noted that the higher revenue of RM94.5m (+8.3% y-oy) and net earnings of RM14.1m (+37.0% y-o-y) was mainly driven by better selling prices (+5% y-o-y). The revenue breakdown by product showed that sales of tissue products, which contributed 86.2% of the current quarter’s sales, grew 6.7% y-o-y, sanitary napkins (+19.7% y-o-y) and diapers (+14.2% y-o-y). Although historically 1Q sales were usually higher than that in 4Q, the 1QFY10 q-o-q comparison showed flat revenue growth, which was attributed to the high base effect in 4QFY09, during which volume was hiked up by the one-off purchase from a customer and the stocking up of inventory as NTPM cut the selling price of its tissue products by ~9.5% q-o-q in 4QFY09. Note that it registered a remarkably strong top- (RM95.1m) and bottom-line (RM15m) in 4QFY09.
Margin should narrow in 3QFY10. The company’s 1QFY10 EBIT margin expanded by 2.6% pts y-o-y on lower pulp prices, which were lower by US$200 per tonne y-o-y. However, as pulp prices have since risen by US$40 per tonne since 1QFY10 and management has guided for inventory to last for another quarter, we believe the higher raw material prices will be reflected in NTPM’s 3Q results. We are forecasting a slightly lower EBIT margin of 16.3% in FY10 vs 16.9% in FY09.
Increasing capex for FY10. The group has allocated RM40m in capex for FY10, up from RM24m in the previous FY. This would be used to expand its production lines for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, logistics and warehousing. The group is currently leasing its warehouses and intends to purchase a few warehouses in Malaysia. As NTPM is already a market leader in the local tissue products market, which is experiencing marginal organic growth, NTPM will sharpen its focus on its baby diapers and sanitary napkins business going forward. While the group has started to commercialise its stationery products, the revenue contribution is negligible. NTPM hopes to gain a foothold in the local stationery industry in the next three years. |
|
本周最热论坛帖子
哦！谢谢你的分享！
1946 
236
