【AIRASIA 5099 交流专区 1】亚洲航空

noelogy

原帖由 ccube 于 15-5-2008 12:11 AM 发表
短期内。。。RM1 无不可能

rm0.80有可能吗？

ngyyao

richard branson(virgin airline),他是billionaire来。。跟donald trump一样，喜欢tv live show

prince

亚行前几天无故取消航班，可能要吃官司和赔偿，经常延迟航班已让人受不了了，现在还搞出这种事，看来是回天乏术了！

napster

原帖由 弹煮 于 14-5-2008 06:46 PM 发表
sumimasen...
亚航背后那个金毛，叫什么virgin的，算是强力后盾吗？

sir richard brandson 的virgin atlantic表现平平罢了。

连新航都考虑出售拥有权

Mr.Business

新闻。

Thursday May 15, 2008

Airlines brace for further turmoil
By B.K. SIDHU

Fuel surcharges and calamities may hit industry

PETALING JAYA: As airline chiefs across the world grapple with rising jet fuel prices and economic uncertainties that are forcing them to raise fuel surcharges to offset rising costs, AirAsia Bhd seems to be doing the reverse – the no-frills airline is offering a RM5 discount on fuel surcharge to fight archrival Malaysia Airlines (MAS).

Whether this is a sign that AirAsia may not need to raise fuel surcharges in the future is not known. What is certain is it is not going to let MAS eat into its market share. Both carriers are offering zero-fare programmes to woo passengers since experts expect the second half to be a turbulent period for the regional and global aviation sector.

AirAsia group chief executive Datuk Tony Fernandes, in affirming that “nothing will change”, says: “History has shown that airlines which remain true to their core business will survive attacks on their business model. We are committed to our low-cost model and will not change anything despite the recent price slash by MAS.”

That may be so but crude oil prices are still heading north. An analyst has revised his Brent crude oil projection to US$110 per barrel for 2008 from US$90 per barrel previously. Brent crude oil hit US$126.98 in mid-morning yesterday before falling back at US$125.80 per barrel. Jet fuel price rose to a record US$160.25 a barrel in Singapore on May 12.

Air travel is no longer cheap as fuel surcharges and other related costs add up to a princely sum these days. Any slowdown will affect airlines’ profitability and some airlines are already feeling the pressure on forward seat bookings.

Standard & Poor’s equity research analyst Shukor Yusof said airlines had to contend not just with rising jet fuel prices but also over-capacity as more aircraft begin operations in the second half.

“The region would be hit this year and there is a possibility of demand traffic cooling off because of higher fuel (surcharges) and natural calamities.

“All these are going to start eating into airlines’ revenue,” he said from Singapore.

Tiger Airways chief executive officer Tony Davis said with growing concerns of a global slowdown, “we expect customers to be more price sensitive in their travel decisions.”

But MAS and AirAsia have not seen any slowdown in forward bookings, at least for now.

“Our forward booking numbers remain strong for most of our routes. For those routes affected by overall travel demand, we would plan capability adjustments accordingly,” MAS managing director Datuk Seri Idris Jala said, adding that the airline would also “review” its fuel surcharge policy if the need arises.

Given the volatility in the region, it is no surprise that analysts are taking a relook at the aviation sector, which enjoyed a boom period last year.

An analyst in a report yesterday said: “The outlook for aviation is bleak, given such high oil prices because airlines will not be able to recoup the cost escalation via fuel surcharges alone.

“The risk of turning away price-sensitive customers is very real, particularly for airlines that depend on leisure and low-cost travellers. We would avoid the aviation sector generally.”

His top pick in the region is Singapore Airlines (SIA); however, he has downgraded the airline from an outperform to neutral. The other three in the region – MAS, AirAsia and Thai Airways – have also been downgraded to underperform. SIA’s recently-released first quarter financial results were 21% lower from a year ago. MAS and AirAsia are expected to release their results by month end.

SIA is least affected by higher fuel as 40%-50% of its fuel requirements are hedged.

While Fernandes said the airline would continue to mount new flights and increase frequencies, the same analyst said that “AirAsia is probably the most risky airline” and his “top sell in the aviation sector.”

His rationale, among others, is that AirAsia has not raised fuel surcharges since October last year and its customers may already be hitting the limit of their tolerance to higher prices.”

He has downgraded AirAsia to underperform and reduced its price target to 84 sen (from RM1.65 previously) and MAS to RM3.20 a share from RM6.70 previously. His earnings forecast of the airlines has been reduced significantly due to uncertainties ahead.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 19&sec=business

Mr.Business

新闻。

Thursday May 15, 2008
More airlines headed for a nosedive

PETALING JAYA: After the collapse of Oasis Hong Kong Airlines due to turbulence in the aviation industry, half a dozen carriers across the globe have also gone down that path in the past few weeks. And more are expected to do so, given that the ride ahead is projected to be a very bumpy one.

None of the airline chiefs would say which airline would go next although there could be some potential candidates in the region. However, they are confident that low-cost carriers such as AirAsia, AirAsia X, Jetstar and Tiger Airways would be able to ride the tide.

“It’s a tough time for the industry. To survive, airlines have to manage their business better and/or look at domestic and/or cross border strategic partnerships and consolidation,” said Malaysia Airlines (MAS) managing director Datuk Seri Idris Jala. He cited KLM-Air France as a good model of how airlines can merge and yet retain their own identity.

Jala called for governments and markets to support strategic partnerships/consolidations that would enable airlines to grow into truly global businesses.

Tiger Airways chief executive officer Tony Davis, who echoed Jala’s sentiments, said airlines faced the dual pressure of escalating operating costs and increased competition from new start-up airlines.

“The changing climate will bring about merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities for companies with solid cost management,” he added.

Etihad Airways country manager W. Lindsay White concurs that partnerships and M&As were possible during turbulent times.

But AirAsia boss Datuk Tony Fernandes has a contrarian view on partnerships and M&As.

He believes more airlines would collapse. “We expect a domino effect, but to me M&As are value destroying as they affect the airline’s culture.

“We do not need to get into any M&As as we are building our own hubs. M&As are popular in the US where there is an over-capacity problem,” he said.

Davis said Tiger Airways would keep its focus on strict cost discipline to retain its low-cost base. This would allow the airline to manage increases in fuel costs more effectively and continue to offer low fares to its customers.

To Jala, cost containment is an important part of any business, and more so for airlines in this current challenging environment. But cost cutting is not about cutting corners or compromising on safety and quality.

“It is about transforming our business and reducing costs in areas that will give us room to grow by providing service elements that reflect our five-star status,” he added.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 62&sec=business

Mr.Business

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 15-5-2008 12:57 PM 发表
He has downgraded AirAsia to underperform and reduced its price targetto 84 sen (from RM1.65 previously) and MAS to RM3.20 a share fromRM6.70 previously. His earnings forecast of the airlines has beenreduced significantly due to uncertainties ahead.

哇，分析员很好做哦，目标价可以有这么大的调整的？

东风不破

原帖由 ccube 于 14-5-2008 08:46 PM 发表
如果亚航证明他能够生存。。。。
那他的股价反弹力。。应该无可限量

雨过天晴。。。。现在是雨天。。。。我在等待彩虹的出现。。。。

Mr.Business

我觉得接下来的几年Air Asia依然将是银行和债主的孙子，为银行和债主赚钱，为消费者提供便宜的廉价航空，股东却什么都没有。。。

khokhokho

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 15-5-2008 03:08 PM 发表
我觉得接下来的几年Air Asia依然将是银行和债主的孙子，为银行和债主赚钱，为消费者提供便宜的廉价航空，股东却什么都没有。。。

如果真你所講，我想外資肯定和自已講，我少生兩條腿。

7000 tranmil 外資就是看到做假問題，就不管如何，直接丟票。

[ 本帖最后由 khokhokho 于 15-5-2008 03:58 PM 编辑 ]

NewArea

卖压好猛
有的卖空吗？什么股票行可以？
今天打给HLBroking 他们说不可以

SoRooter

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/12791

燃油成本有增無減‧區域航空財測大幅調低

2008-05-15 12:14

（吉隆坡）原油價漲勢銳不可擋，大部份分析員把未來3年的油價上調至每桶110令吉以上水平，首當其衝者為航空業。

在現有不利的宏觀經濟大環境下，加上面對沉重燃油成本壓力，區域的所有航空公司盈利預測被大幅調低，調幅介於17%至67%。

評級下調至減碼

區域航空股評級從“加碼”下調至“減碼”，但卻看好有高度燃油護盤、賺幅高和有燃料效率機隊的航空股，新加坡的新航（SIA）排在首位，馬股的馬航（MAS，3786；主板貿服組）次之。

不過，基於油價衝擊，聯昌研究把馬航的評級從“跑贏大市”下調至“落後大市”，目標價從較早的6令吉70仙調低至3令吉20仙；亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099；主板貿服組）的評級從“中和”調降至“落後大市”，目標價從較早的1令吉65仙降低至84仙。

在全球需求成長延續和供應緊縮大前提下，聯昌研究大幅調升原油價格的預測每桶高達20至45美元，未來3年的油價預計將猛衝至每桶110美元以上水平，比較較早預測會下滑至每桶70美元。

在高油價大環境下，航空業前景黯淡無光，因航空公司光是依賴燃油附加費，是難以應對成本節節高漲的挑戰，尤其對價格敏感的旅客而言，對依賴消費閒和廉價旅客的航空公司，挑戰更嚴竣。

聯昌建議“避開”航空股，如果真的要選，也是選擇那些對石油具有抗跌性的股項，即具高水平的燃油護盤、最高的盈利賺幅、對價格敏感的旅遊需求依賴性最低、以及擁有低齡和燃油效率機隊的航空公司。

新航具備上述的優點，受高燃油的影響也最低，其護盤水平佔燃油需求的40%-50%。除了新航外，馬航也有同樣優點，排位在泰航和亞洲航空之上。

馬航財測調低34%

馬航的燃油護盤水平在2008財政年佔燃油需求的43%，每桶為89美元，價格吸引人，同時也及時調漲燃油附加費，並通過多項計劃管理非燃油成本。

無論如何，馬航的撙節努力措施，仍然不足以抵擋盈利大幅的轉劣，並削減其盈利預測達34%至62%，惟本益比則從較早較保守的8倍增至10倍。

亞航油價風險最高

亞航對高油價的風險最高，該公司自去年10月以來並沒有調高燃油附加費，而馬航和泰航在今年已多次調升燃油附加費，亞航旅客在高油價環境下或許已達可容忍的極限水平。

亞航有信心A320飛機送抵，但其利息成本和折舊水平在未來數年會膨脹，使原已面對高燃料窘境困繞的亞航更是雪上加霜，在最新的數個季度面對負載率下滑趨勢，在產能成長下或進一步降低。

亞航最近通過售出策略中和其衍生產品，部份衝擊包括其未來債務的有效利率將調高，進而加諸其賺幅壓力。

亞航聯號公司泰國亞航和印尼亞航因為虧損，在數近數個季度並沒有根據股權納入賬項，但亞航卻持續融資其營運，至去年12月杪，這兩家聯號公司欠亞航 1億8380萬令吉，在低價環境，這兩家公司仍在掙扎，期加緊回本，但在現有高油價情況，預料情況可能會轉劣，對亞航盈利或帶來沖擊，因可能需注銷拖欠的金額。

亞航凈利預測被下調17%至32%，若聯號公司拖欠的金額注銷，其每股凈資產價值進一步下滑至75仙。
星洲日報／財經‧2008.05.15

会不会有一天开始爆？

chookf

所以要看透分析師呀!!!

ccube

分析師的话能信的话。。。 他早就是亿万富翁了。。
还需要打工做分析师吗？

lawrence311

继续那么难做下去，岂不是全球的航空公司都得倒闭？
一定还有什么应对之策。。。。
请问各位，之前不是听说 Airasia 开廉价酒店吗？效果如何呢？
Tony 仔应该明白。。。。是时候把公司业务多样化了。。。。不然原油是个无底洞啊。。。。

[ 本帖最后由 lawrence311 于 15-5-2008 09:26 PM 编辑 ]

xzm

原帖由 cchleong 于 15-5-2008 09:28 PM 发表
今天新闻报道交通部长翁诗杰说会就安东尼指马航获得政府每年4亿津贴一事,做进一步的了解,他说会跟财政部拿数据及在近期内会跟马航和亚航的领导人面洽,以确保双方的恶性竞争不会持续下去,交通部长都插手了,偶看马航和 ...

搞到最后，马航跟亚航合并也未必不可能。

goodluck88

说是插手....如果事实真的如此....你觉得这些部长敢得罪政府吗??
到最后还不是一大堆理伦...屁乱放一场....

jason~10~

看观察中。。。。其实这个RM１。１８价位是蛮吸引我的。只是要等最新的ANNUAL REPORT 出来先。。。

Mr.Business

谈经阁: 鹤蚌相争，渔翁得利？ 2008/05/14 18:02:19
●伍咏敏

最近，翻开报章，最瞩目的就是惹人热泪的天灾新闻；但是，另一边厢，相信不难发现一国内2家航空公司的促销广告。

从这些广告看出，2家航空公司已经掀起了价格战。

对于消费者，削价战出现，是再好不过的消息，因为，鹤蚌相争渔翁得利。

现在，搭飞机已经不是奢侈品了！

我认为，这绝对是好事，所谓有竞争就有进步，打破了垄断的局面，竞争者就必须不断提升自己以获得消费者的支持。

身为消费者，削价战一爆发，做决定时也难免要多想一会儿，好让自己购得价格合理的产品。

前几天，与朋友讨论这件事：“给你，你会怎么做出选择？”

有人说：“前者是贵数十元，但是，他的服务较好，而且环境优美。”

又有人说：“我比较欣赏后者的经营理念，我支持后者。”

发现了吗？打破垄断，对商家、消费者及贸易环境都好。

虽说，航空公司可能变得生意难做，但是，竞争逼使您进步，不在这里竞争，到了国外竞争不是更激烈吗？

再来，选择多了，消费者就会变得更精明，更懂分析。

我认为，社会需要精明的消费者，他们必须为自己的消费活动进行分析，如果没有选择，久了，分析能力会退化。

消费者，是时候动动脑筋了。

商家，加油！

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=843138

vampire2000

AIR ASIA一直买新飞机。对于前途来说是好的，因为可以扩充业务，但也增加了债务。飞机也越来越旧，需要的维修费也越来越高。竞争者也越来越多，赚幅也越来越少。

就算赚多多也没用，根本就不可能有多余的钱来派高息。所以我是不会买AIR ASIA来做长期投资的，如果短期还可能，但那是投机了。