【BESHOM 7668 交流专区】（前名 HAIO ）

弹煮

2007财政年度EPS为32.388sen，共派息18sen。Payout ratio 55%
2008财政年度最后一个季度财报将在六月尾出炉。前三个季度EPS为42.239sen，共派息8sen。就算不包括第四季盈利，三个quarter的EPS拿出一半，都有21分。意味着，这次少少底都有13分股息。如果意外的没派息，就要检讨hold or sell了，因为领导层违背dividend payout 50%的承诺，诚信可疑。

hdcyng

原帖由 弹煮 于 17-6-2008 02:18 AM 发表

2007财政年度EPS为32.388sen，共派息18sen。Payout ratio 55%
2008财政年度最后一个季度财报将在六月尾出炉。前三个季度EPS为42. ...

赞同！
拿现金比较稳，
而且不怕假账。

Mr.Business

原帖由 NewArea 于 17-6-2008 12:42 AM 发表
那应该不是money game 不好意识
我听到有位大大说他的朋友买十个调整形内衣RM20000。我还以为是money game

RM20K的事情不会写在公司网站的。去问问HAIO的传销商，去google看看。。。

附上Dali的文章：
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2008/04/hey-ho-hai-o-usually-i-would-not-even.html


Monday, April 14, 2008
Hey-Ho Hai-O!

Usually I would not even waste my time on a stock like Hai-O, but the exchange between Bullbear and Moolah in the Fusion chat box had been voluminous and heated at times - that had to stir my interest. Basically BB still has concerns on its business model but thinks that the current run up in revenue and profit will allow for a substantial gain via a mid term trade. Moolah does not like the MLM model and the quite silly RM50m property investment from excess funds.

BullBear posted on FusionInvestor chat: HaiO is selling at a low PE (based on ttm-eps). It earns >25% on equity and its net profit margin >10% of its revenue. The arguments centred on its management and its business franchise. IF HaiO continues to perform, those who invested into it would have a return of x% (?5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 100%), if it underperforms, one might lose y% (?5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 100%) . Works out the odds (x/y), and see if you like the odds.
Moolah's Concerns: Yes, HaiO is making tons of money but what's the concerns? What's yours? Well mine are the two simple issue, management and business model. Main issue here is, are the concerns that I raised legitimate? Are you comfortable with a MLM business model? Would you invest and buy-and-hold for the long term in such a business?

My Take:
1) Revenue Streams: They have three: Wholesale, Retail and MLM. Lets take a look at their last 5 quarters on revenue. Figures in RM million. Start 1Q2007, last 1Q2008.
Wholesale: 21.2 / 20.1 / 30.2 / 34.8 / 25.5
MLM: 17.3 / 21 / 28.6 / 32.8 / 40 /
Retail: 7.9 / 9.9 / 8.1 / 11.8 / 7.9 /
Very obvious that Hai-O's fortunes is solely MLM. If you take away the MLM, Hai-O should be a penny stock with a very very poor business model. They got lucky by recruiting a lot of Malay ladies to do MLM. The executive who mooted the idea should get a RM1m bonus.

2) Margins: Same revenue streams, now look at the margins in percentage: Wholesale: 16.5 / 8.4 / 19.9 / 29.8 / 12.7 MLM: 13.2 / 16.3 / 14.9 / 11.9 / 14.2 Retail: 3 / 9 / (2.1) / 5.9 / 2.0 The retail is shit, might as well dump them.

3) Hai-O struck gold with their revamped MLM strategy, now they have also expanded into Indonesia - leveraging on the bright idea that Malay and Indonesians have the same market tastes. If they stuck to the MLM, they could see a bit more interest in their stock. But they would have to come up with better ideas on what to do with the cash. Suddenly they went into property by plonking RM50m (even though they will be using a portion of the space to manufacture their products). The margins in MLM are good enough. Better if the company come up with say they will pay 75% of net profits back every year as dividends. Then investors can look forward to a proper dividend yield. If they did that, the company will be paying 12 sen in 2007 and probably 26 sen in 2008.

4) MLM is not a model that generates a lot of positives. Market is small, growth may be excellent in the initial stages but will flat out very soon. There is also the need to keep coming up with new exciting product every few months to keep sales charged up - till now, no one knows what their future best sellers will be and where they will come from. There is not coherent communication of strategy, approach, R&D, partners, etc. in this aspect.

5) Back in 2003, the top guy on why Hai-O was venturing into the IT sector, he said: “We are debt free and cash rich as we have RM8mil in fixed deposits, RM4mil in our current account, and RM20mil in overdraft facilities. Therefore, we will venture into any business if it can bring us some benefit.” OMG, this is the type of management vision we are looking at - no strategy, no vision, no plan, where are its core competencies - its a family business still run kamikaze style.

6) The most dangerous caveat why I do not like holding Hai-O is that controlling shareholders have a relatively small stake left in Hai-O. The Tan family has 25.6% and the next biggest shareholder is Maybank Smallcap with 3.9%. Its understandable if it was a large cap but it has only 82.5m shares.

It has been brought to my attention that a group of entrepreneurs started to pool their resources to get the company listed, hence explaining the smallish stakes by controlling owners. I did notice that most of the shares of the controlling shareholders are "pledged to the broking houses" - for a margin line. Usually I would not be suspicious but hey, stranger things have happened before. With 25.6% and company's coffers growing alarmingly, what do you do? If you still hold 45% or more of the shares I am sure they would declare bigger dividends and spend excess cash better. At 25.6%, to reap the good fortune, you would have to buy back a lot of shares - nah... that ain't gonna happen.

The MLM was unexpected, hence the more fragile an opinion I have of management. As with many dicey and dubious companies where controlling shareholders have smallish stakes, if there is a lot of cash in the company, they will think of ways to take the cash out.

I am not saying Hai-O will be doing that but there is a greater likelihood. If Hai-O had RM100m in the bank now, do you think they will declare a RM1.00 cash dividend? Not on your life, not with 25.6%... maybe with a 45% stake. I am playing the devil's advocate here. If I was devious, I will "own some assets" say land or other small businesses and inject into Hai-O in exchange for new shares and cash. That way, I can inflate the assets being injected and increase shareholding in Hai-O and also take some cash out. That could happen.

Or, since I am the controlling shareholder, for every ringgit taken out, I am only entitled to 25.6%. Why do that? If I am the devil again, I would declare a very generous bonus and/or options scheme every year for the "connected senior management".

I am not saying Hai-O will do that, but the risk is much much higher given the shareholdings level. Hence the reluctance of other institutions and savvy investors to jump in even on the low PER attraction. Thus, the RM50m spending on the property project should raise more alarm bells than being viewed as a smart move to expand upstream or downstream.

弹煮

谢谢版主转帖。
其实我看过了这篇文章。
我的买卖策略，在这个月尾会有分晓

Mr.Business

你已经拥有 (好象是蛮低价的)，就无所谓了。我想提醒的是未买又想买的网友。

弹煮

未买和已买的人都一样要谨慎
这次如果没有达到我的最低派息要求（13sen），我绝对会卖掉它。

scsiang82

更新: June 16, 2008 20:46
惡炒後果普洱茶暴跌70%


（上海16日訊）上海普洱茶新茶6月開始陸續上市，與去年同期相比，今年普洱新茶的價格大幅下跌約70%。
不過，業內人士透露，目前的普洱茶價格，才算是回歸到了正常水平。

上海《新聞晨報》今天報導，前2年的普洱茶現在已無人問津，市場存量很多，這正是“惡意炒作”給普洱茶市場帶來的創傷，未來普洱茶再受到大範圍炒作的可能性不大。

價格處正常水平

據上海國際茶城茶商介紹，普洱春茶一般在3月左右採摘，通常需經過3個月的發酵，於6月左右上市，目前市場上已經可見一定量的普洱新茶。

業內人士認為，一年四季中，普洱春茶的品質最高檔，近日不少普洱茶愛好者已在打聽新茶的價格和到貨量了。

最有代表性的“大益普洱茶”，現在的批發價是一塊餅人民幣40元（18.98令吉）左右，但去年6月的價格為100元（47.46令吉）至130元（61.70令吉）。

再如普洱茶的另一個品種“中茶”，今年新茶上市的價位估計平均在2塊餅60元（28.47令吉）左右，但去年同期卻高達280元（132.89令吉）。

上海國際茶城總經理葉應春表示，目前的普洱茶新茶價格其實才算是正常水平。

前1、2年，普洱茶遭炒家惡炒，包括上海在內的中國多個城市的普洱茶市場，在去年3月左右價格被炒至頂峰，但轉眼間暴漲變為狂跌，不少普洱茶瞬間折價一半。

惡意炒作普洱茶帶來許多後遺症，不少廠商紛紛擴大普洱茶產量，而今年的暴跌，各廠商紛紛減產。

據瞭解，前2年的高價普洱茶，現在已無人問津，但市場存量仍有許多。上海一些去年做虧本的商家，今年已決定不再進貨。

http://www.chinapress.com.my/content_new.asp?dt=2008-06-17&sec=business&art=0617bsa03a11.txt

光年

海鸥的SHARE BUYBACK

Mr.Business

听说不久BLR就要起了，车贷利息也很快就要起了，感觉银行在缩紧银根。。。向银行借钱然后参加MLM可能没这么顺利了。另外物价上涨也会影响MLM的生意。


更新: June 23, 2008 23:46
銀行上調車貸利率
挫購車意願引反效果

報導：陳玉燕

銀行短期內將因車貸利率上調享有更高利息收入，惟長期無法取得明顯效益。
（吉隆坡23日訊）銀行料將上調汽車貸款利率，分析員認為，該措施將使銀行享有短期更高賺幅，惟長期卻可能因資金成本揚升、購車意願減弱等因素，打擊放貸成長。

一名汽車銷售人員接受《中國報》訪問時指出，商業銀行有意上調個人汽車貸款利率，非國產車利率上升幅度超過1%，國產車則低于1%。

據聞，銀行業原訂今日上調車貸利率，惟最終卻暫擱該計劃，原因及實施日期未明。

對于上述發展，分析師認為，一旦銀行上調車貸利率，短期將享有更高賺幅，惟長期影響中和，甚至可能引發反效果。

一位不願具名分析員回應《中國報》提問時指出，銀行短期內將因車款利率上調而享有更高利息收入，惟最終將因市場競爭及汽車市場放緩影響，長期無法取得明顯效益。

她指出，目前，多家銀行包括聯昌銀行（CIMB Bank）、豐隆銀行（HLBANK，5819，主板金融）及興業銀行（RHB Bank），已不太專注汽車租購（Hire-Purchase）業務。

賺幅不顯著

大馬銀行（AmBank）、大眾銀行（PBBANK，1295，主板金融）、馬銀行（MAYBANK，1155，主板金融）及國貿銀行（EON Bank）則較注重該領域。

另一名分析員指出，目前，租購放款佔銀行體系總放款額介于15%至16%，即使調高車貸利率，銀行整體賺幅不會顯著提升。

“這是銀行業維持賺幅的一項措施，不過，未來隨存款利率上升，銀行業的放款賺幅將再受壓擠。”

她也指出，調高利率可能是銀行業用以管理風險的途徑之一。

“銀行將貸款門檻上調，意味著有能力借貸者，將是可負擔更高利息的一群，繼而降低業者所承擔風險。”

亞歐美證券研究分析員黃秋嫻受詢時指出，調高車貸利率不會對銀行業有顯著利益，反之，通貨膨脹打擊將比前者顯著。

她預測，今年銀行業放款率將錄得8%增長。

國產車利率或調低
傳非國產車下月調高

消息人士指出，非國產車貸款利率預測下月上調，國產車利率則可能稍微調低。

《新海峽時報》引述銀行及汽車業消息人士的話指出，銀行料將車貸利率定在3.5%。

據知，馬銀行、大馬銀行、聯昌銀行及大眾銀行高層已就上述舉措，在上週會面。

上述4家銀行控制了車貸市場70%。

消息指出，上述動作在于統一利率，目前非國產車的利率更低。

車商補貼

目前，非國產車車貸利率約2.5%，國產車普騰控股（PROTON，5304，主板消費）及第二國產車（Perodua）汽車車貸則介于約3.8%至4%。

報導指出，國產車車貸利率更高，主要是國產車屬低收入群可負擔的市場入門汽車，車主“未能償還貸款的風險較高”。

另一方面，馬來西亞金融公司協會主席兼大眾銀行董事經理丹斯里鄭亞歷指出，迄今，該協會未察覺有任何金融機構將在本週調高車貸利率。

他指出，車貸利率取決于貸款攤還期、汽車類型及客戶風險背景等因素。

他說，現有車貸利率低部分原因是汽車經銷商補貼，以促銷更多車子。

他指出，由于長期利率揚升，銀行需檢討現有車貸利率。

鄭亞歷也在文告中指出，任何調高車款利率的決定，都是個別金融機構的決定。

雙重打擊
汽車市場或走緩

汽油售價調升已使擁車一族負擔加重，分析員指出，一旦銀行調高車貸利率，將進一步打擊購車意願。

艾芬投資銀行分析員葉華明回應《中國報》提問時指出，自政府宣佈上調汽油售價逾40%后，部分二手車商大吐苦水，指一週內未能售出車子，相較以往，他們每個月可售20至30輛汽車。

他說，若車貸利率調高，新車及二手車市場將進一步受創。

“二手車商將首當其衝，車主脫售舊車時，抵購（trade-in）價格可能下挫，導致新車購買意願降低。”

他指出，舊車售價走低，新車市場將受影響，連鎖效應造成汽車市場或走緩。

今年冀賣50萬輛

不過，他也指出，我國汽車市場過去2年相對平淡，部分車主可能會替代舊車，因此可盼帶動部分買氣。

“我們現在仍展望今年總汽車銷量達50萬輛，惟可能重新檢討該數據。”

去年，我國汽車總銷量達48萬7176輛。

另一位分析員指出，通脹壓力已造成消費者可支配收入減少，若車貸利率走高，將對購車意願造成雙重打擊。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 24-6-2008 04:08 PM 编辑 ]

光年

对一半。BUMI没问题。所以海鸥也没问题。

Mr.Business

这要看业绩了。。。物价上涨会减低消费欲望，这是要考虑的因素。

光年

也对一半。BUMI会借钱来满足消费欲望的。

ThermoFisher

你是BUMI吗？怎么那么了解BUMI？

Mr.Business

物价上涨，生活艰难，我相信Haio的MLM业务会受影响。至于是不是对一半，只有业绩能决定了。

光年

不重要的。了解才重要 。哈哈。。。

ThermoFisher

介意与大家分享你对BUMI有多深入的了解吗？

光年

对。 业绩是最好的证明。

huayang

BUMI 借钱容易，还钱难，买东西小样小样买不喜欢买多多...

Mr.Business

很好的业绩，而且给股息32sen （我没看错吧？）。恭喜！

Link.

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30/04/2008

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD	CUMULATIVE PERIOD
	CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30/04/2008	30/04/2007	30/04/2008	30/04/2007
		RM'000	RM'000	RM'000	RM'000
1	Revenue	133,548	56,718	373,822	189,346
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	26,435	10,188	67,725	30,608
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	19,168	7,771	49,046	22,114
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	18,942	4,967	48,493	21,384
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (sen)	25.15	7.57	64.38	32.61
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (sen)	32.00	13.00	40.00	18.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (RM)	1.7600		1.5700

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 26-6-2008 06:56 PM 编辑 ]

弹煮

今晚睡不下鸟~
Stereo大大好像有很多货，最近甚至加码。