【ChooKF分析】PBBANK-失衡的駟馬車

弹煮

从BUrsa Historical Annual Reports找，瓜。

纯毛织品

写得很好.财务报告不能完全看财务数字,要看财务数字背后的经济环境和趋势.很多公司在取得亏损前,盈利都是很好的.

无花

我知道你有执到一点....
不过真的是亏钱,上两个星期无聊我拿了9家本地和与之家外国银行的 Balance Sheet 和 INCOME STATEMENT来比一比发现的

奥萨马宾拉丁

原帖由 弹煮 于 4-5-2008 08:12 PM 发表
从BUrsa Historical Annual Reports找，瓜。

刚去看过了，最早也是99年而已，95'96'97'98'叻？

奥萨马宾拉丁

原帖由 无花 于 4-5-2008 08:15 PM 发表
我知道你有执到一点....
不过真的是亏钱,上两个星期无聊我拿了9家本地和与之家外国银行的 Balance Sheet 和 INCOME STATEMENT来比一比发现的

不管是黑猫还是白猫，能捉老鼠的就是好猫。

弹煮

请大米姐姐提供过去二十年的财务数据

tn728202

原帖由 甜蜜蜜的大米 于 4-5-2008 09:29 PM 发表
我看到那篇长篇大论我就肚子痛了，泻了很多次。
没那么多年数字提供。本人要去睡觉了！发烧了。

壓力真的那么大？
那么大家幫忙翻譯
1人1段
很快搞定了的

988fulot10

每一间公司都会有做东西的,,,,
不要和BURSA反目就好,前途广阔,,,

titotito

对金融股还是，，吾式

各位惊吓了

股友

感动中，我第一次看到你写这么长的，你又怎么啦？

无花

不会是Short掉鸟!??!?!

不要shoot 我!!

股友

原帖由 无花 于 4-5-2008 11:58 PM 发表
不会是Short掉鸟!??!?!

不要shoot 我!!

choo哥哥惹到他鸟。没看到他叫publicpang 吗

财散人聚

呵呵，又是数字的分析。。。。

看来tan 81有的发挥料。。。。

到底是谁在写数字。。。。是市场吗？是大众吗？还是。。。？？

GODmother

Faster growth in deposits, loans grew rapidly; driven earnings growth, but only 1.23 percent non-performing loans; due to lower bad debts, assets and shareholder return for the peer highest capital adequacy ratio at a good level of 13.6% and dividend yield High. . . . . . Trust's business, reputation as the most peer; low proportion of the comprehensive insurance. PBBANK is good company, this can not be questioned, it is not only in the 97/98 financial crisis a loss of the bank, so many benefits, whether it is worthwhile investment? »


PBBANK the potential problems
"rofessional" analysts said PBBANK Although large capital companies, but still fast-growing, excited by this! In fact, PBBANK Since 2003, growth has begun to appear unbalanced! Actual growth can be said to have hidden the future "crisis" ( "crisis" this term may be some exaggeration), the first look at the profit PBBANK:
1995 = 303400 1996 = 274900 = 408000 1997
1998 = 51,226 1999 = 616,141
* PBBANK since 97/98 after the financial turmoil in 1999, before the storm to restore profitability, and even far beyond the pre-storm
2000 = 716865 2001 = 770237 = 700078 2002
* 2000-2002, the profit growth slow to a standstill, rehabilitation growth rate is 3.4%
2003 = 974186 2004 = 1450281 = 1266988 2005
2006 = 1,795,161 2007 = 2,201,786
Deducted from the first quarter of 2008 = Goddwill Payment, the actual profit of 517,387, an increase of 8.6%
* 2003-2008 in the first quarter, a staggering profit growth, the growth rate is 23% -
PBBANK shares from out of consolidation in 2003, started up the road.
PBBANK the dividend yield, have been at 50 percent.
Entered 2004, the dividend yield as high as 167 percent in 2005 90% 2006 84%;
2007 88%; four years paid dividends as high as 6887066 (68 billion 37 million)
PBBANK shareholders whether you feel Henshuang » » »
However, the "crisis" on such next!


Bank is how to increase profits, the method can say a lot, but to moderate the growth, capital must continue to increase, capital increase, can do more business, if not to increase capital, and then how to grow a certain Limitations. PBBANK shareholders and the capital, since 1995, 2117500, after the financial turmoil, still long to build stability in 2003, 8617795. However, since 2004 started a high dividend policy, to the first quarter of 2008, only 8757697, no visible increase in capital investment. No capital increase, PBBANK 2004-2007, the profit is how 23 percent of the growth in this »
The answer is: seeking outside capital! During this period, PBBANK the capital increase of 86,011,703! (8 per cent 6000000000)
Of which: bank deposits increased by 72254014 (7 per cent 2.2 billion), the issue of new shares 1505062 (15 million), sub-bills issued 2829055 (28 million), 2008 from the next five years and issued 5 billion secondary instruments (Subordinated Notes) that Have no problem, the bank itself is "rolling the money to borrow money," the "financial leverage" industry, PBBANK of non-performing loans rate is still low, but high return on assets has never been distributed at the 1.50 percent dividend, dropped to the 2007 1.26%.
Here I am serious statement, PBBANK Black or very low inflation, asset returns remain high, even the most counterparts. Necessarily so, what is wrong »
PBBANK currently do not see the problem, but the key lies in the fact that financial leverage of a limit, otherwise they will resist the disaster caused by the advent of decline, but once the regulatory failures, it will cause serious losses! Most people kind of misconception that banks are stable, in fact, as long as the banks know how to make money, know the risks of banks on a high! Please think about the Japanese end of the 1980s economic bubble burst after the bank in 2007 in the United States secondary mortgage crisis, the number of financial institutions in trouble, including the world's largest banks CITI GROUP! PBBANK past financial leverage is as follows:
15.6 times the 1995 = 1996 = 1997 = 14.8 times 14.5 times
* PBBANK pre-crisis financial leverage
12.9 times the 1998 = 1999 = 2000 = 11.5 times 10.0 times
8.5 times the 2001 = 2002 = 2003 = 9.0 times 7.5 times
* After the financial turmoil gradually reduce the financial leverage
2004 = 10.7 times 13.1 times the 2005 = 2006 = 2007 = 16.3 times 18.6 times
* Because of high dividend policy, resulting in proceeds can not be retained, debt increased by 8 per cent 6 billion, increasing financial leverage, beyond the pre-crisis levels, in the absence of high dividend policy, the share capital of about 11927839, the financial leverage of about There are 14.9 times
If the banks over the use of financial leverage will increase operational risk, once the economy turns bad, or the pursuit of short-term profits and neglect risk, such as excessive lending and investment derivatives, asset securitization, and so on, the more financial leverage to expand and increase the potential risks Following is the financial leverage CITI GROUP changes:
2000 = 13.6 times 12.9 times the 2001 = 2002 = 2003 = 12.6 times 12.9 times
13.5 times the 2004 = 2005 = 2006 = 12.2 times 15.7 times
* 911 in 2001, entered the era of low interest rates for 2006-2007-07 anti-inflation, raising interest rates to
2007 = 19.2 times the loan-to------>> outbreak, CITI GROUP loss of tens of billions of dollars.
You know in the loan-to-CITI GROUP before the outbreak of the financial situation? »
Non-performing loans ratio = 1.32% (low enough it &raquo = 1.14% return on assets (good earnings)
Capital adequacy ratio = 11.65% (higher than the standard) risk-weighted capital ratio = 5.16% (higher than the standard)
Although the implementation of Basel II regulations and not mandatory transfer of 25 per cent of annual profits to the statutory reserves, PBBANK capital ratio materials will also be enhanced. Its banking risk-weighted capital ratio (RWCR) and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), can be expected to get 70 basis points and 50 basis points of growth. However, in view of CITI GROUP example,
This shows that these risk measurement method of calculation does not adequately reflect the potential risks of the future!


The estimated value of PBBANK
PBBANK latest financial figures contrast is the price (cut-off T):
Shares: RM11.40 contrast NTA: RM 2.61 = 4.37 times
Shares: RM11.40 contrast 2007 EPS: RM 0.629 = 18 multiple
Shares: RM11.40 contrast 2008 EPS: RM 0.690 = 16 multiple (personal estimate)
Due to structural problems of industry, banking profits to how high, has a limit of its shares should not exceed three times the NTA, PBBANK there are 4.37 times, apparently too expensive. . PBBANK due to high stock prices, and higher investment risk. . If we buy PBBANK, then you are more than nine months to pay the money, first for the 2008 performance pay for the unknown! If PBBANK could continue for at least three years to at least 15 percent of the profit growth, it is now sure to buy PBBANK Nengzhuan money! Is a prerequisite for sustainable future growth. . I estimate that this year profit of about 2222823-2380288, EPS RM 0.66-RM 0.71 between!


PBBANK the growth is really no problem? »
PBBANK in the new issue 5 billion sub-bills, the financial leverage will be as high as 20 / 21 times, risk management, has been limited to the top! By 2008 the stock market downturn, I believe it to the trust sales and stock-related business, reduce the possibility of high profits;
The construction sector slowed down, the cancellation of many major projects, will reduce borrowing and lending activities; PBBANK recent announcement with the insurance company ING, through its own network equipment and infrastructure throughout the country, sales of ING Insurance bank insurance products, analysts estimated PBBANK08 improve the financial year and 09 in the profitability of 4.5% and 4.2% annually up to 7-10 billion. In short, PBBANK of future growth, there are still many unknown factors! I said earlier, the growth needs of the capital, PBBANK Although the capital increase, but it is built on the intense financial leverage operation, in fact reached the limit, if not control of cooling, at the risk of a backfire, let alone who know the environment When it turns bad » Space for local growth has been saturated, new markets have not only strive to open up residues and抢rival markets. Although the growth in overseas earnings 31.5 percent, but of the Group's 2006 pre-tax profit of 13.7 percent, only increased slightly in 2007 to 14.5%, it is impossible to PBBANK bring short-term significant growth. Since 2004, the growth is mainly built on the high financial leverage, long-term it is unsustainable, it is estimated that its profit growth will slow down! If it appears the fast-growing, it is not a good thing, but more dangerous, constantly improve financial leverage, as long as Time comes, is bound by the Fanshi! So, do not think that PBBANK profit growth far greater than peers, it is a good thing, this is a price to pay for! PBBANK to cool down, the need to sacrifice short-term profits and stock prices fell.
1. Reduce the dividend, to 30% below the dividend yield
But this will trigger shareholder dissatisfaction, causing shares fell! As a securities analyst said: 'PBBANK the next five years at the secondary 5 billion ringgit bonds, will increase the group's dividend distribution amount. 'This shows that attention to short-term interests of the mentality of many enthusiastic, totally ignored long-term risks.
2. Strengthen risk management and review the quality of loans
3. Reduce the financial leverage of the loan investment and strive to increase the share capital





大米姐。。如果你老板不介意的话。。可以用以上语法不全的GOOGLE翻译文本。。希望你早日康复。。继续造福人群。。

tan81

谢谢财哥的吹棒。本来想潜水了，你却逼我浮上来。
这个楼，应该升精华，没有人有异议。

我刚回来，看了CHoo 兄的分析。暂时不可置评。因为还没有查证。
今天做的很迟，累了。希望明天会有时间分析，回应。
谢谢Choo 的功课。实在让我一次过，看到了金融股，应该看重哪一些数据。

财散人聚

原帖由 tan81 于 5-5-2008 12:25 AM 发表
谢谢财哥的吹棒。本来想潜水了，你却逼我浮上来。
这个楼，应该升精华，没有人有异议。

我刚回来，看了CHoo 兄的分析。暂时不可置评。因为还没有查证。
今天做的很迟，累了。希望明天会有时间分析， ...

哈哈，迟到好过没有到。。。。

是不是可以好像楼主一样，定下日期放炮炸人呢？

才发现你们两个的共同点也不少。。。。都是blogger。。。。都是很落力的推广自己的空间。。。。

public bank 和citi group来做比较。。。。你说，行的通吗？

tan81

个人看法。
我想，大家误解了楼主的比较原因。
楼主的潜台词，应该是Ｃｉｔｉ　的数据这么好，都会在风暴来了过后，产生问题。
所以，以ＰＢＢ身为东南亚，弹丸小地的优质银行，面对风暴时，不可以独善其身的。
其他比较劣质的银行，更加不用比了。

看到有网友很在意，如果ＰＢＢ　比其他本地银行好，就可以没有问题了。
其实不然。经济架构转型，是可以让整个行业面临亏损的。ＰＢＢ比其他本地银行好，不代表安全。当然，如果ＰＢＢ惨，其他的，肯定更惨。谁叫你投资的，不是像鱼大的ＰＢＢ一样优质。

Ｃｉｔｉ　的数据，应该是一种安全参考。

titotito

咗莫酱怕, 不怕啦,, 死也死Commerz 老虎先啦

klagigi

原帖由 甜蜜蜜的大米 于 4-5-2008 03:00 PM 发表
大佬 ！！！ 你看不到问题在那里吗？
问题是这篇分析文章是用“中文”写的！！ 大佬！
鸡蛋糕！你害我今天不用睡午觉了！
明天早上我一定给人家追到半死！

大米姐，不要劳气啦。想着月尾拿着RM3333的书卷扫书，心情一定好很多

web

顶！

有同感。。。

还有职员的花红极度不合理的高，要检讨。。。快闪。。。