【AIRASIA 5099 交流专区 1】亚洲航空

guomiao88

不过小弟觉得hedging 有时也是在所难免的。
那些shown 在income statement 的 loss and gain 是这样的。

假设，
2008 jan- oil price- us 100
通常AIRLINE 都应该买CALL option/future.
看他们的policy 而定。
如果他们要把cost locked 在这个price.
就买入call option/future-us 100
接下来就有2 可能性。

1。oil price up to-us 130
在这里她的hedging 就有gain-us 30
不过它这时买入的oil price 也会是us 130
所以，最后的cost 也会是 locked in 的 us 100

2。如果oil price down...
也就一样，有hedging loss
不过actual oil price 也会比较低。
actual cost 也会等于 us 100.

大概是这样。。。

hancom

为什么不顺势而行呢？在这油价高涨的时代还投资在一间靠油为生的“廉价”航空？如果说是为了反向投资，这值得吗？这样的“反向”是不是可以解释成“投机”了呢？

Captain_zed

讲这么多做么？？复杂化而已。。。七岁小孩子都知道啦。。。石油起价。。。首当其冲当然是这些行业啦。。。用眼睛看就可以了。。。就不知道做么还要用到脑。。。。。

invest_klse

原帖由 invest_klse 于 13-1-2008 10:35 PM 发表

对不起，之前不小心给了以上的错误讯息 ，在此更正一下：
有关 fuel option contract 的亏损（RM 24.6 million），其实是已经记入balance sheet了。

小弟杯弓蛇影，敬请见谅。  

小弟已把上贴删除。因为，我发觉我又犯错了。。。

经过仔细审查，以上那项亏损应该是没有记录在 Income Statement 或 balance sheet 里的。

invest_klse

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 14-1-2008 05:10 PM 发表
我有去读wow，可是我不觉得季度财报或 annual report有象OSK的研究报告中这么详细。。。有空我会放上来给大家看看。。。
...

AirAsia的季度报告由我来放吧。

摘录自 AirAsia FY2007-Q1的报告：

(iii) Fuel swap

As at 27 November 2006, the Group and Company had taken forward hedge positions covering a period up to 30 September 2008 to protect itself against movements in fuel prices upwards of USD74.50 (WTI benchmark). In this regard, the Company already hedged 33% of its requirements for the current quarter (ending 31 December 2006) and approximately 54%-86% for the remaining periods in the current financial year (ending 30 June 2007). This is extended to cover approximately 47% of our requirements in the first quarter of FY2008.


摘录自 AirAsia FY2007-Q2的报告：

(iii) Fuel Hedging

As at 26 February 2007, the Group had taken forward hedge position covering a period up to 30 September 2007 to protect itself against movement in fuel prices higher than USD62.25 (WTI benchmark). In this regard, the Group has already hedged between 55% to 90% for the remaining months in the current financial year (ending 30 June 2007). The Group has also covered approximately 50% of our requirements for the first quarter of FY2008.


摘录自 AirAsia FY2007-Q3的报告：

(iii) Fuel Hedging

As at 23 May 2007, the Group hedged its upside risk with a cap at USD75.0 (WTI benchmark). The Group has hedged up to 90% for the remaining months in the current financial year ending 30 June 2007.


摘录自 AirAsia FY2007-Q4的报告：

(iii) Fuel Hedging

The Company bought caps to fully hedge its upside risk until 30 June 2007. It is currently about 35% hedged in a Sing Jet Kerosene, call spread until December 2007 and sold WTI puts at USD 52.50 / barrel for the same period.

From January until June 2008, the Company bought WTI put spreads from USD 70 until USD 55 (quarterly extendibles) and sold puts at USD 48.

In financial years 2009 and 2010, the Company bought WTI put spreads from USD 69 until USD 55 (quarterly extendibles) and sold puts at USD 40, 42 and 35 / barrel respectively.
The Company also sold calls (quarterly extendibles) at the average price of USD 82.60/barrel from January 2008 – June 2010 with in Knock-in at USD 90 / barrel.

WTI was at USD 70.98 on 29th June 2007.



摘录自 AirAsia FY2008-Q1的报告：

(iii) Fuel Hedging

The Company bought caps to fully hedge its upside risk until 30 June 2007. It is currently about 35% hedged in a Sing Jet Kerosene, call spread until December 2007 and sold WTI puts at USD 52.50 / barrel for the same period.

From January until June 2008, the Company bought WTI put spreads from USD 70 until USD 55 (quarterly extendibles) and sold puts at USD 48.

In financial years 2009 and 2010, the Company bought WTI put spreads from USD 69 until USD 55 (quarterly extendibles) and sold puts at USD 40, 42 and 35 / barrel respectively.

The Company also sold calls (quarterly extendibles) at the average price of USD 82.60/barrel from January 2008 – June 2010 with in Knock-in at USD 90 / barrel.


[ 本帖最后由 invest_klse 于 15-1-2008 12:13 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

原帖由 guomiao88 于 14-1-2008 10:56 PM 发表
不过小弟觉得hedging 有时也是在所难免的。
那些shown 在income statement 的 loss and gain 是这样的。

假设，
2008 jan- oil price- us 100
通常AIRLINE 都应该买CALL option/future.
看他们的policy 而定。 ...

这要看你hedging的目的是为了护盘还是投机。护盘是正确的，投机是big no no。

invest_klse

AirAsia 在油价的投机，首次出现是在 FY2007 的第四季度报告。
虽然，它没有说那个 contract 是每个月多少 barrel。但投机意图非常明显。

如果你读了这份季度报告都没发现问题，就算它有写多少 barrel 你也不会去在意。

Mr.Business

新闻。

Tuesday January 15, 2008

AirAsia has no plans to go private, says CEO

SEPANG: Low-cost carrier AirAsia Bhd has no plans to be privatised, according to group chief executive officer Datuk Tony Fernandes.  

“We have no plans to privatise. It’s not something that I am aware of,” Fernandes said yesterday.

He said this after a launch event which AirAsia co-hosted with CAE, a global provider of simulation and modelling technologies and integrated training solutions for the civil aviation industry and defence forces.  

Asked on the firm’s share price, which has plunged more than 20% since October, he said: “I do think the market needs to understand AirAsia better.”

The airline has seen strong selling of its shares by foreign shareholders of late. The drop was “related to AirAsia’s fuel-hedging policy, which some parties considered excessively speculative,” OSK Research said last week. AirAsia shares closed 6 sen lower at RM1.52 yesterday in a generally weak market.  

Separately, Fernandes said he was “happy” with the response for AirAsia’s Singapore-Kuala Lumpur services, which will start Feb 1.  

“We are very happy with the response, business is very strong,” he said, adding that to-date, about 10,000 seats worth some RM1mil had been sold.  

Meanwhile, at yesterday’s event, which was witnessed by Transport Minister Datuk Sri Chan Kong Choy, CAE announced that it had selected Kuala Lumpur as the location for its South-East Asian training hub.  

The announcement follows CAE contract sealed in November to manage AirAsia’s Type Rating Training Organisation at the AirAsia Academy to provide training for AirAsia pilots.  

The academy, which had so far seen an investment of RM200mil, was set to undergo further expansion, Fernandes said. “The second phase of the academy will be operational by June,” he said, adding that this would cost about RM40mil.

The academy now has three simulators – two CAE-built Airbus A320s belonging to AirAsia, and a Boeing 737-300 owned by CAE – and can train about 400 pilots a year.

CAE group president, innovation and civil training and services, Jeff Roberts said CAE would add an Airbus A320 simulator and an Airbus A330 simulator over the next one year.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 10&sec=business

invest_klse

原帖由 invest_klse 于 15-1-2008 08:55 AM 发表
AirAsia 在油价的投机，首次出现是在 FY2007 的第四季度报告。
虽然，它没有说那个 contract 是每个月多少 barrel。但投机意图非常明显。

如果你读了这份季度报告都没发现问题，就算它有写多少 barrel 你也不会去在意。

以我本身为例子吧。

其实，几个月前当我看到 AirAsia 的季度报告中有 sell call 时，我也觉得奇怪：护盘操作不是应该 buy call 吗？但当时我想，AirAsia 管理层既然都公开对媒体说它们在做油价护盘，应该不会骗人吧？加上对自己没信心，我就以为是自己对那份报告的理解有误。结果，就这样不了了之。。。

直到最近才知道，我当初的怀疑是没错的。不过，我觉得自己也有责任，轻易放过了财报上的疑点。

无论如何，我对自己说：经一事，长一智。

KelvinLiew

只要这几天不再俯冲而下－－横摆的过渡－－按图表和技术反弹面来看－－绝对很适合买入作短线操作－－个人觉得－－设定一个0。30的赚幅－－

这支股票还是会保留在我的观察内－就像云顶般

这星期就暂时不看她了

Mr.Business

航空公司要搭客掏錢‧機艙賣餐點求新求變

2008-01-14 19:02

美國航空業者在幾年前嘗試機票不含餐點，想吃東西的搭客在機上另行花錢購買。這幾年下來，業者體會到搭客想要的是“真”的食物，因此改善餐飲以提昇乘客掏錢買東西吃的欲望。

同時，為順應當代飲食趨勢，全美航空（US Airways）、中西航空（Midwest Airlines）、達美航空（Delta）等業者率先把菜單調整成賣更營養、更有味道的食物，比如達美航空的風乾黑橄欖意大利麵沙律（每份8美元）、中西航空的雞肉沙爹及串烤牛肉晚餐（每份10美元）、全美航空的橘汁雞肉沙律附烤山胡桃（每份7美元）。

通常要中長程飛航（至少飛3至4小時）才會有這樣的選擇，短程班機仍只供應薯片之類的零食。不過，業者還是想增加銷售像樣食物的航班，尤其是這幾年下來業者比較清楚乘客的口味了。

中西航空機上食物總經理舒爾曼指出，該公司最大的挑戰是做到供需配合，因為該航空的機上食物都是在中樞機場的廚房先打理好，一次來回飛航若賣不掉，就要把食物丟棄。

隨著越來越多航空公司接受機上刷卡消費，把熟食納入銷售項目，就能透過電腦科技追蹤存貨、改善預估，比如達美的空服員甚至會把乘客想點但已賣光的餐點輸入電腦，做為記錄以利改善。

尋求餐廳業者協助

另一個趨勢是航空業者會尋求餐廳業者的幫助，希望做出在機艙內仍保持風味的餐點。過去飛機食物之所以難吃，可能跟機艙內乾燥且位處高海拔有關。

達美的新菜單就是與波士頓市郊“橄欖（Olives）”餐廳的老闆兼主廚合作的成果，中西航空則找來密爾瓦基Mader's餐廳的主廚幫忙。

Mader's餐廳主廚孟羅指出，麵食和炸食在機上再熱過味道就變了，因此他開的菜單以重口味的亞洲菜、墨西哥菜、地中海菜為主。他說，機上食物既然是零售產品，就要留意外觀，客人才會想吃，像事先煎好的荷包蛋就不行。

既然乘客現在要另行掏錢才有東西吃，就會促使航空業者改變所賣食物。全美航空就在乘客和空服員的反映下，加賣更新鮮的食物，不只是賣裝著薯片、墨西哥莎莎醬、糖果等的盒裝零食。

面對成本挑戰

康乃爾大學的航空公司管理副教授塔芭琪指出，機艙內賣食物對航空業者而言不是搖錢樹，因為這存在許多隱藏成本以及航班延誤等變數的挑戰，至於食物的品質，端賴乘客願意花多少錢買食物。

所幸，有一些乘客反映，若食物更好吃，他們願意多花一點錢買。這可望成為飛機食物形象獲扭轉的關鍵。

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/8709

Mr.Business

Tony好大的口气。哈。。。

AirAsia buys options to offset potential oil hedging losses

Published: 2008/01/15

DISCOUNT carrier AirAsia Bhd has bought options to protect against potential derivative losses from hedging oil.

Chief executive officer Datuk Tony Fernandes told Bloomberg in an interview that the airline has call options that will offset potential losses from an earlier derivative contract.

“We are covered for six months,” Fernandes said by phone today. “We are very comfortable even with oil hitting US$130 a barrel that we will still deliver good margins.”

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... /Article/index_html

invest_klse

好。。。看他还能再笑几个月。

六个月后，油价上到 USD130 时，他就会知道：不要挑战默菲定律。

Mr.Business

AirAsia作出澄清。

For immediate release
15 JANUARY 2008

AIRASIA CLARIFIES FUEL HEDGING POSITION   

Kuala Lumpur, 15 January 2008 – AirAsia wishes to rectify certain statements appearing in the press and analyst reports with regards to the Company’s fuel hedging strategy.     

It has been stated by the press and in some analyst reports that the Company adopts a fuel hedging strategy that is speculative. The Company wishes to notify that it has never speculated on fuel prices in the past and will not speculate on fuel prices going forward. Our strategy has always been to hedge fuel requirements whenever an attractively priced structure is available. Fuel hedging is an important component of our strategy as it provides us with clarity over our cost structure; this will allow us to manage our seat inventory better and aids route development. We are averse to risks and therefore believe in mitigating those risks by removing variability and uncertainties from our business whenever suitable opportunities arise.   

Prior to a trade being executed, one would have assessed the current operating and market conditions before choosing the appropriate hedge. Therefore, the decision to hedge begins with a view. At the time the earlier hedge was taken in July 2007, our view was that oil prices of above USD90/barrel will be a result of excessive speculative market action in that commodity.

Fuel price volatility intensified in the later part of the second half of 2007 due to higher fuel consumption projections, supply disruptions, geopolitical risk concerns, and the weakening of the US Dollar. Due to the high volatility in oil prices, we are of the view that adopting a static hedged approach (through fixed/plain vanilla swaps) at current price levels would involve taking excessive risks. If one were to opt for a fixed swap now and should fuel prices retrace subsequently, we would be left with effectively an obligation to purchase expensive fuel with no room to manoeuvre out of the position. Therefore, we opted for a dynamic approach and layered fuel hedge structures. We are confident that this is the most suitable approach to manage the high volatile fuel prices and will continue to apply this strategy in the future.

We approach this fuel hedging subject carefully and we have always maintained a conservative stance which has resulted in positive contributions from our past fuel hedges. This has ultimately benefited the Company in reducing the total fuel bill and hence enhance our ability to offer low fares to our guests.

Over the past two months, foreign funds have been reducing their exposure in airline stocks. As depicted in the table below, all the prominent low cost carriers around the world experienced heavy sell downs. Therefore it would be inappropriate to lay the blame on our fuel hedges as the reason for the decline in the Company’s share price.     

......

“We believe that the recent sell down of AirAsia shares are overdone. The Company’s fundamentals are in the best position ever, market demand continues to be robust and we will be launching lucrative routes such as Kuala Lumpur to Singapore and Kuala Lumpur to Guangzhou. With this fuel hedge in place, and assuming that the strong demand and pick-up rate that we are seeing is sustainable, the Company is in a sound position to deliver strong profit growth for the financial year – barring any unforeseen events and circumstances.”

- Dato’ Tony Fernandes, Group CEO, AirAsia Berhad –

Links.

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 15-1-2008 06:15 PM 编辑 ]

lovesoccer88

Airline Name        Price on 3rd  December 2007        Price on  11th January 2008        Share Price Change
AirAsia                         MYR 1.88        MYR 1.58          -16%
Ryanair                         GBP 4.74        GBP 3.88                        -18%
EasyJet                         GBP 5.57        GBP 4.60                        -17%
SouthWest Airlines         USD 13.74        USD 11.70        -15%
JetBlue Airways         USD 6.93                        USD 4.74                        -32%
Virgin Blue        AUD 2.23                        AUD 1.78                        -20%
GOL Airways         BRL 46.60        BRL 36.79        -21%

sembtan

向高油價低頭
亞航重拾原油期權
（吉隆坡15日訊）亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板貿易）終于向高油價低頭，買進原油買入期權（Call Option）避免損失。

亞航總執行長拿督東尼費南德斯接受《彭博社》電訪時說：“公司已在去年12月份買進原油期權，期限至今年6月，抵銷早前賣出原油期權蒙受的虧損。”

他指出，亞航已為未來6個月燃油需求護盤，即使油價猛漲至每桶130美元（約423.67令吉），仍可錄得可觀利潤。

他補充，亞航以往的避險政策是與油價背道而馳，若油價上漲，即買進短期原油期權。

“油價太高，亞航已停止燃油長期避險。”

東尼不認為，油價還有很大的揚升空間。

不過，亞航稍晚發文告澄清，燃油避險政策未涉及投機，公司策略是依吸引價格護盤。

“針對波動甚巨的燃油價格，我們選擇較有彈性（Dynamic）的護盤政策，未來會繼續落實相關策略。”

東尼說，過去2個月，全球廉價航空股價皆遭賣壓，不可因為亞航股價挫跌16%，歸咎于護盤政策。

tan81

東尼說，過去2個月，全球廉價航空股價皆遭賣壓，不可因為亞航股價挫跌16%，歸咎于護盤政策。

死不认错，应该叫他上来Cari 看看 Air Asia 的股东如何品价 他们的护盘政策。也许，Email Cari 的　Ｌｉｎｋｓ　给大股东，或会让他们知道小股东在想什么。

KelvinLiew

原帖由 lovesoccer88 于 15-1-2008 07:00 PM 发表
Airline Name        Price on 3rd  December 2007        Price on  11th January 2008        Share Price Change
AirAsia                         MYR 1.88        MYR 1.58          -16%
Ryanair                         GBP 4.74        GBP 3.88                        - ...

这么理想OH

小巴菲

亞航澄清未進行燃油價投機 -16th Jan 2008

（吉隆坡15日訊）亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板貿服股）澄清該公司的燃油護盤策略，表示不曾在之前對燃油價格做出任何投機活動，未來也不會對燃油價格進行投機活動。 亞洲航空首席執行員東尼費德南斯發表文告表示，一些分析員的報告指該公司進行投機燃油護盤策略。 他表示，燃油護盤是該公司策略中，相當重要的一環，以確定其成本結構，並讓亞航更好的處理其座位容量和航線發展。 他說，該公司最近已被過度沽售，因該公司基本面正處于歷來最佳狀況，並有能力展現強勁盈利成長。

invest_klse

原帖由 sembtan 于 15-1-2008 09:48 PM 发表
...
東尼說，過去2個月，全球廉價航空股價皆遭賣壓，不可因為亞航股價挫跌16%，歸咎于護盤政策。

其实这句话是对的。

因为，亚航的油价投机行为早在约４个月前公布的季度报告中就有记录了。而股价下跌好象是最近的事情。

所谓＂亚航估价下跌，是因为外资觉得它的护盘策略过于投机＂这类话，只不过是那些分析员们的猜测，股东们都没有表态。这些＂事后诸葛亮＂的报告，都是分析员们惯玩的把戏。看到股价跌了，就去随便找些看起来合乎逻辑的＂原因＂，真正的原因是什么，恐怕他们自己也不懂。