【AIRASIA 5099 交流专区 1】亚洲航空

梦之龙

原帖由 ee33 于 9-1-2008 03:31 PM 发表
啊，版主来做检查了。。。
我提到亚航是值得留意的股项，但我从来都不是Kawan AirAsia，希望我的文章没有任何的误导性。
近来跌得怦怦磅磅，我还是继续留意的说。。。

是否有拿她和其他航空股作比较－－因为如果是大家都面对主要燃油问题－－这个其实没什么－－关键在于是否发展受牵制或者有利因素被歪曲或被忽略

梦之龙

原帖由 ee33 于 9-1-2008 03:36 PM 发表
更新一下，虎航已率先推出吉隆坡往返新加坡航线了。。。

from Singapore to Kuala Lumpur
S$0
Buy period: 7 Jan 08 to 11 Jan 08, or until seats sell out.
Fly period: 1 Feb 08 to 25 Oct 08
All flight ...

这个的重点是－－目前从新加坡到吉隆坡可以两个廉价航空－虎航和亚航

廉价航空从吉隆坡就只有亚航到新加坡－－还有这条航线目前按各国已经签署的航空协议－－暂时不会有第三家廉价航空能获得

结束=开始

油价问题不是单单针对亚航， 而是整个航空业。
所以， 单把问题注意在油价有点不合理。
如何控制成本，增加赚钱的航线， 提高乘客量才是航空公司争胜的条件。

ee33

以下文章是从invest-klse网友的部落格摘录。
关于Defered Tax在亚航财报影响的程度，我想再看看亚航最新财报再看看。。。
大家不妨研究研究。。。

http://invest-klse.blogspot.com/2007/12/defered-tax-in-airasias-profit.html

10 December 2007My Mistake - the "Defered Tax" in AirAsia's profit
In AirAsia's financial statement, There's a very important item, named "deferred tax". I didn't have any idea about what is it and what it means. (because I was a science-stream student, and never learn about accounting in school). I thought that it's some kind of complex taxing calculation, and I'd just ignored it in my previous analysis of AirAsia.
But, later I found that this "deferred tax" play an important role in AirAsia's financial statement. It made up about 20% of AirAsia's equity, and more than 40% of AirAsia's PAT! So, I think it's a MUST to understand what is it, and where it comes from.
After some readings and studies, I've get some idea about this "deferred tax". I understand that, due to the International Accounting Standard, this "deferred tax" is allowed to be recorded in an income statement. But I really doubt that this is a proper practice in reflecting the financial performance of a company.
The "deferred tax" item in AirAsia, for example, represent the tax credit given to the company. Though this tax credit is incurred during current year due to the company's CAPEX, it can only be realised/utilised in the future, i.e. when AirAsia is asked to pay a tax in the future, it can utilise the the tax credit, and save a lots of cash from the taxes it should pay.
My conclusion is, a "deferred tax" recorded in the income statement of a particular year actually bring no cash-flow into the company during that year. That's not an earning (at least in my opinion), just a future savings of tax. Showing the "deferred tax" in the income statement means recording a tomorrow cash-flow in today's statement. It's some kind of accounting technique to "polish" the financial performance of a company".
So, I've to do a new valuation on AirAsia. According to it's Q4-FY2007 statement, its EPS is about 21 sen, quite a good income. But if we exclude the deferred tax item from its income statement, its EPS is only 12 sen. If we exclude also the special item ("other operational income"), AirAsia's EPS for FY-2007 will become 8 sen only. This will give a PER value of about 25, quite a high number for a conservative investor like me. So, the share price of RM1.90 now is not as attractive as what i thought before.
However, the latest financial report shows that AirAsia still pose a very good prospect in the coming years. It's quite likely to have a 50% growth in PAT this year. So now... I'll hold its stock and continue to monitor its performance. If its EPS for FY-2008 (excluding deferred tax) can grow to a value not less than 15 sen, I'll consider to keep accumulating AirAsia's stock.

[ 本帖最后由 ee33 于 9-1-2008 03:53 PM 编辑 ]

ee33

大家都面对主要燃油问题，这是对的。
但是在面对燃油问题所做的护盘动作却都不一样。
消息说亚航把第一季度的石油价押在90美元以下，押错注了，这应该是近期困扰着亚航的负面消息。

ee33

原帖由 梦之龙 于 9-1-2008 03:45 PM 发表

这个的重点是－－目前从新加坡到吉隆坡可以两个廉价航空－虎航和亚航

廉价航空从吉隆坡就只有亚航到新加坡－－还有这条航线目前按各国已经签署的航空协议－－暂时不会有第三家廉价航空能获得

虎航也能从吉隆坡到新加坡

梦之龙

原帖由 ee33 于 9-1-2008 03:58 PM 发表
大家都面对主要燃油问题，这是对的。
但是在面对燃油问题所做的护盘动作却都不一样。
消息说亚航把第一季度的石油价押在90美元以下，押错注了，这应该是近期困扰着亚航的负面消息。

想求问－－资料是会被公开的吗？？是否也能知道其他航空的情况

容易被蓄意消息所牵制上下的股票－－这个可能就让我对航空业股票打折扣了－－毕竟其他的消息股我更把握能第一手

梦之龙

原帖由 ee33 于 9-1-2008 04:05 PM 发表



虎航也能从吉隆坡到新加坡

那么我的资料收集有错误了－－原以为虎航不能开从吉隆坡出发到新加坡的－－回程双向机票不算

Mr.Business

OSK的研究报告 (08/01/2008):

Speculative Hedging?

With oil price touching US$100 per barrel and AirAsia’s short call option at US$82.60 per bbl, foreign investors sold the stock due to what some felt was speculative hedging. AirAsia has since covered its short positions with new long call options which should cover it at least until June 2008. Nonetheless, with oil price remaining high, we revise up our jet fuel forecast and downgrade our PBT forecasts. Fair value is also reduced to RM1.65 after factoring in a lower PER on continued fuel hedge risk. Downgrade to Neutral.

Retracement due to concerns on fuel hedging. Despite reporting an excellent 1Q results, AirAsia’s share price had retraced as foreign investors sold their shares on concerns related to AirAsia’s fuel hedging policy which some parties considered excessively speculative. We note that FMR Corp and Fidelity has ceased to be a substantial shareholder of AirAsia.

Sold Call Option at US$82.60 per barrel. The concerns surround AirAsia’s selling of a 150,000 barrels per month call option at US$82.60 per barrel with a knock-in price at US$90 per barrel between January 08 to June 2010. If oil were to sustain at US$100 per barrel, AirAsia could be looking at a RM100m loss per annum. The sale of the call option was done as AirAsia was expecting oil prices to retreat in 2008.

Short position covered by new long positions. AirAsia has since covered its positions by buying Call options for 350,000 barrels at US$82 per bbl and also 200,000 bbl per mth at US$79.50 per bbl between January to June 2008. It also said that it has room to negotiate on the Short Call options every 6 months. Given these developments, we do not factor in any losses from the fuel hedges at the moment.

Earnings downgrade on higher fuel prices. We do however raise our assumption for average jet fuel price from US$85 per bbl to US$97 per bbl (oil at US$87 per barrel) and this leads us to downgrade our PBT by 23% and 25% in FY08 and FY09 respectively.

Downgrade to Neutral. Aside from the earnings downgrade, we also reduce our valuation multiple to 16x PER as we believe the fuel hedge risk remains despite AirAsia covering its short positions until June 2008. As such, our fair value is reduced to RM1.65 and we downgrade AirAsia to a Neutral.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Share Price has suffered. Since AirAsia’s 1Q results were announced at the end of November, despite the results being largely above expectations, the share price has languished, falling some 9.6%. The fall has been a result of a number of factors namely high oil prices, the realization that AirAsia had sold call options for oil at US$82.60 per barrel for the next two and a half years and perhaps continuing challenging conditions in its Asean associates. During our results note, we had maintained our Trading Buy call on AirAsia with a note of caution to investors that this was a risky buy as they would be betting against an oil price rise. Given the recent price movement of oil, it would appear that oil may sustain above the US$90 per barrel mark for at least a
month if not longer. As such, we are downgrading AirAsia given continued negative sentiment on the airline relating to its fuel hedging policies. In this report, we take a more detailed look at how its fuel hedging policies may have alienated certain investors.

CONCERN OVER HEDGING POLICIES
Foreigners selling. Looking at the heavy selling pressure and the recent shareholder change announcements its obvious that there has been significant selling from AirAsia’s foreign shareholders. T Rowe Price which owned 8.18% of AirAsia as of 24th September 2007 has sold down its stake to 7.21% as of 28th December 2007 while FMR Corp and Fidelity which owned a 6.78% stake as of 24th September ceased to be a substantial shareholder as of 24th December. The volumes traded during the recent selling have been quite significant. Therefore, the fact that AirAsia’s shares have only fallen some 10% since end November does still indicate huge demand for its shares although no new substantial shareholder has emerged as yet.

Concern over hedging policy. Although high oil prices do impact airlines and AirAsia’s share price may have been a victim of the recent US$100 oil, our recent discussions with a number of overseas investors indicates that concern was raised over the hedging policy of AirAsia rather than the actual oil price.
...............................

Taking a Bet on Falling Oil Prices.
Another thing to note about AirAsia’s past fuel hedges was that the airline had always previously bet that oil prices were going up. Therefore its hedges were structured to gain from a rising oil price. Investors seemed to applaud AirAsia’s hedging efforts. However, in the middle of 2007, AirAsia took a U-turn and instead bet on oil prices falling. It took various put and call positions as follows:
• Bought put spreads between US$55 per barrel to US$69/70 per barrel. This would allow AirAsia to effectively sell oil at US$69/70 per barrel to the counterparty when oil prices fell below that level. At the same time a counterparty could also sell oil to AirAsia at US$55 per barrel if the price fell below
that level. As such AirAsia stands to gain a maximum of US$15 per barrel if oil fell to US$55 per barrel. See Figure 3.

• Sold call options for 150,000 barrels per month at US$82.60 per barrel with a knock-in price at US$90 per barrel starting from January 2008 to June 2010. For this structure, which AirAsia sold to get some gains which were not revealed, there appears to be no ceiling price making the losses potentially
infinite. Eg, if oil were at US$100 per barrel, AirAsia would stand to lose (100-82.60) or US$17.40 per  barrel. See Figure 4.

The second option (sale of call options) caused a number of investors to push the panic button as January 2008 approached and oil price hovered above US$90 per barrel as they feared continued losses from AirAsia due to the counterparty exercising the call option. As an indication, oil at US$100 per barrel consistently would result in a loss of US$2.61m a month or RM100.2m a year. Looking at our previous forecast of RM323m for FY08, that would wipe out 30% of profits.
......

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 9-1-2008 04:25 PM 编辑 ]

梦之龙

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 9-1-2008 04:12 PM 发表
OSK的研究报告 (08/01/2008):

Speculative Hedging?

With oil price touching US$100 per barrel and AirAsia’s short call option at

US$82.60 per bbl, foreign investors sold the stock due to what s ...

有没有华语翻译

建能

正当大家都把焦点放在油价，新加坡，及其他竞争者的时候，有没有想过亚航现在面对的真正瓶颈/困境是什么？

是机场。LCCT现在根本没法再容纳更多新来的AIRBUS，所以他们被迫把部分新的飞机转泊在泰国和印尼的机场。
油价是所有人的问题，新加坡也不是问题，其他竞争者更不是问题，因为谁的飞机多，航线多，谁就会胜出。

tn728202

原帖由 建能 于 9-1-2008 04:16 PM 发表
正当大家都把焦点放在油价，新加坡，及其他竞争者的时候，有没有想过亚航现在面对的真正瓶颈/困境是什么？

是机场。LCCT现在根本没法再容纳更多新来的AIRBUS，所以他们被迫把部分新的飞机转泊在泰国和印尼的机场。 ...

Subang機場不是開放了？
只是飛瑩獨家使用罷了嗎？

ee33

原帖由 梦之龙 于 9-1-2008 04:07 PM 发表

想求问－－资料是会被公开的吗？？是否也能知道其他航空的情况

容易被蓄意消息所牵制上下的股票－－这个可能就让我对航空业股票打折扣了－－毕竟其他的消息股我更把握能第一手

我需要翻查一下。。。
综合一下以下几点是我目前观察重点：
1。deferred tax 在亚航财报的影响。
2。亚航的油价护盘动作。
3。公司领导人Tony的职业重心在哪里？依然志在发展亚航成航空巨霸，还是更有心发展本身越来越多元化的商业王国?

加力仔＿FIPF

OSK的研究报告（ 2008年8日1月） ：

投机避险？

随着原油价格触及100美元至每桶和亚航的短期看涨期权在美国82.60美元每桶，外国投资者抛售股票，由于一些人认为是投机性对冲。亚航已自盖其淡仓与新的长期看涨期权，其中应包括它至少要到2008年6月。然而，随着石油价格的，其余高，我们修改了我们的航空燃油的预测和贬低我们的PBT的预测。公允价值也减少到rm1.65后，保理业务在一个较低的每对续燃油对冲风险。调降评级。

回撤是因为担心燃油对冲。尽管报告是一个出色的第一季度结果，亚航的股价曾回顾了外国投资者出售其股票的关注与亚洲航空公司的燃油对冲政策，其中一些缔约方认为过度投机。我们注意到，磁共振公司和富达已不再是一个大股东的亚洲航空公司。

卖出看涨期权在美国82.60美元美元。关切，环绕亚航的出售一个15万桶，每月认购期权在美国82.60美元每桶连锁，在价格在90美元至每桶1至8至6月2010。如果油价均维持在100美元，降至每桶亚航可寻找的是一种rm100m损失，每半年。出售认购期权是作为亚洲航空预计石油价格将撤退到2008年。

淡仓所涵盖的新的多头部位。亚航已自盖其职位由购买认购期权为35万桶，至1美元的82％桶，也有20万桶的百分之跖骨头区，在美国79.50美元每桶1月至2008年6月。它还说，它已室谈，短期看涨期权，每6个月。鉴于这些发展，我们并不因素任何损失，从燃料对冲处于这样的环境。

盈余调降燃料价格上涨。我们这样做，但我们提出的假设平均喷气燃料价格从85美元每桶，以美元为百分之九十七桶（石油美元， 87 ％桶） ，这促使我们调降我国PBT的23 ％和25 ％ fy08和fy09 。

调降评级。除了收入降级，我们也可以减少我们的估值多以16倍速％ ，因为我们相信燃油对冲风险依然存在，尽管亚航涵盖其淡仓，直至2008年6月。因此，我们的公允价值减至rm1.65我们降级亚航到一个中立的。

主要亮点
股票价格便陷入困境。由于亚航的第一季度结果公布在11月底，虽然结果被大大高于预期，该股价已经上涨了冷落，下降了9.6 ％。秋天已因多项因素影响，即高油价，我们认识到，亚航已售出的认购期权，石油在美国82.60美元桶未来两年半内，并可能持续具有挑战性的条件，在其东盟同伙。在我们的研究结果说明，我们一直坚持我们的贸易买呼吁亚航与需要注意的投资者来说，这是一个冒险的购买，因为他们会投注对石油价格上涨。鉴于近期价格波动的石油，这样看来，油价可能维持高于90美元每桶大关，至少
一个月如果不是更长的时间。鉴于这种情况，我们降级亚航继续给予负面的情绪，对航空公司的有关其燃油对冲政策。在这份报告中，我们采取一个更详细的研究，如何在其燃油对冲政策可能疏远了一些投资者。

关注对冲政策
外国人出售。从沉重的沽售压力，以及最近的大股东变更公告，其显而易见的是，有，已有显着的销售来自亚航的外资股东。吨罗维价格，其中国有8.18 ％，亚航截至2007年9月24日已售出其股份，以7.21 ％ ，截至2007年12月28日，而磁共振公司和富达其中拥有6.78％的股权，截至9月24日不再是一个主要股东截至12月24日。厚厚的买卖在近期的销售也相当显着。因此，事实上，亚航的股价只下跌了约10 ％，自11月底仍显示巨大需求，其股份，虽然没有新的大股东已经出现了没有。

关注对冲政策。虽然高油价不影响航空公司和亚洲航空的股价可能已被受害人的近100美元的石油，我们最近的讨论，与一些外国投资者表明关心的是筹集资金超过对冲政策的亚洲航空公司，而不是石油实际价格。

建能

有开放，不过不是给亚航，这就是为什么东尼一直吵政府要SUBANG。

我觉得东尼到最后可能真的会融资建自己的机场。

Mr.Business

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 9-1-2008 04:12 PM 发表
..............................
Taking a Bet on Falling Oil Prices.
Another thing to note about AirAsia’s past fuel hedges was that the airline had always previously bet that oil prices were going up.Therefore its hedges were structured to gain from a rising oil price.Investors seemed to applaud AirAsia’s hedging efforts. However, in the middle of 2007, AirAsia took a U-turn and instead bet on oil prices falling. It took various put and call positions as follows:
• Bought put spreads between US$55 per barrel to US$69/70 per barrel.This would allow AirAsia to effectively sell oil at US$69/70 per barrel to the counterparty when oil prices fell below that level. At the same time a counterparty could also sell oil to AirAsia at US$55 per barrel if the price fell below
that level. As such AirAsia stands to gain a maximum of US$15 per barrel if oil fell to US$55 per barrel. See Figure 3.

• Sold call options for 150,000 barrels per month at US$82.60 per barrel with a knock-in price at US$90 per barrel starting from January 2008 to June 2010. For this structure, which AirAsia sold to get some gains which were not revealed, there appears to be no ceiling price making the losses potentially
infinite. Eg, if oil were at US$100 per barrel, AirAsia would stand to lose (100-82.60) or US$17.40 per  barrel. See Figure 4.

The second option (sale of call options) caused a number of investors to push the panic button as January 2008 approached and oil price hovered above US$90 per barrel as they feared continued losses from AirAsia due to the counterparty exercising the call option. As an indication, oil at US$100 per barrel consistently would result in a loss of US$2.61m a month or RM100.2m a year. Looking at our previous forecast of RM323m for FY08, that would wipe out 30% of profits.
......

这是重点！

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 9-1-2008 04:28 PM 编辑 ]

梦之龙

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 9-1-2008 04:26 PM 发表


这是重点！

开始了解到我在FKLI的操作跟航空叶护盘的关联相似－－如果我在1月1号卖空FKLI－－我现在已经亏了一张大约100点－－如果我卖了20张－－我等着跑路了

还好我都是只鼓励LONG 每天不带过夜的进出也最难看能赚个10点

Mr.Business

这long long short short对我来说有点复杂，要消化消化。总的来说是外国大股东觉得Air Asia的对冲将会大亏了，所以卖出持股。如果是这原因就还好, 我担心是外国大股东不爽Air Asia在投机油价，对Air Asia失去信心，所以卖出。

梦之龙

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 9-1-2008 04:51 PM 发表
这long long short short对我来说有点复杂，要消化消化。总的来说是外国大股东觉得Air Asia的对冲将会大亏了，所以卖出持股。如果是这原因就还好, 我担心是外国大股东不爽Air Asia在投机油价，对Air Asia失去信心，所 ...

是有必要再深入研究下AIRASIA

继续交流学习中

Mr.Business

更新: January 9, 2008 14:37

亞航明日宣佈馬新航線詳情
（吉隆坡9日訊）東南亞著名廉價航空公司亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板貿易），明早將在新加坡公佈吉隆坡-新加坡航線詳情，包括票價。

http://www.chinapress.com.my/breaking_new.asp?a=0110bkg01.txt