马股指数在高点徘徊，成交量逐渐萎缩，带出了什么意义？

origen

研究下１９９９ LTCM 事态后续的影响。。

ThermoFisher

回复 #5 publicpang 的帖子

如果成交量大，综合指数却在高点徘徊，是好事，表示股市正在储蓄上升的能量；如果成交量萎缩，表示能量不够，有下调的风险，可能是暴风雨前的宁静。。。

loong81

成交量就是市场的温度计。。。。。
可惜我不会看成交量真正代表的意义
只知道成交量在这个时候萎缩不是好讯号。

loong81

记得不久前，某政治人物说马股很健康，相信每日成交量可以维持在13亿。

弹煮

Signs pointing towards a correction or bear market:

１．The major indexes will advance on below average volume
２．Stocks making new 52-week highs will be limited
３．Stocks making new lows will increase
４．Major indexes will fall below the 50-day MA and/or the 200-day MA
５．Index averages will start to under perform. Relative strength lines will head south
６．Major publications will tout hot stocks at key market reversals (market tops)
７．Institutional (smart money) will bail on huge volume
８．General market index down days on excessive volume (always above average)

笨鳥慢慢来

原帖由 财散人聚 于 13-11-2007 11:11 AM 发表


昂哥ho,你说的局也开始印证了。。。。。果然要牺牲掉那些没用的鱼儿，只有这样，美国的股市才会浴火重生。。。。。不过，喜就喜在他们开始在做事情咯，而且。。。。操从石油价的OPEC也开始放话了。。。。。 ...

利空的消息出尽时，早起的鸟儿有虫吃。

chanyk07

赞同你的看法。看了美国的图后,我觉得可能是暴风雨前的宁静。。。大家小心。

现在的情况不是“马股指数在高点徘徊，成交量逐渐萎缩”了。。。

马股已经到了137x，而且成交量也ok,不过都是一些重量级的。。。。

lowcs1

马股最近很落或正处于跌式中，少的成交量就不会加重跌式，不然会跌得更加惨。到时就不只跌二十点。之前起得太快了，现在调整是正常的。

sector

大庄在画图，你还在跟图跑。。。

奥萨马宾拉丁

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 13-11-2007 11:23 AM 发表


我仙家＋吹水家来的。别乱乱听我的话。。。
去了荷兰别回来找我。。。

OSK的仙家说:指数明年会来到1650点,您.....

8years

风暴会不会来没有人可以肯定，不过风暴会来的几率非常高。

另外告诉大家很多人都看不到的问题。
“连最后一招降息也不能让股市上升，还有什么法宝救市（美国股市）？？”

大量投资的人自己保重。美国股市下跌的几率非常高。

ee33

原帖由 8years 于 13-11-2007 01:26 PM 发表
风暴会不会来没有人可以肯定，不过风暴会来的几率非常高。

另外告诉大家很多人都看不到的问题。
“连最后一招降息也不能让股市上升，还有什么法宝救市（美国股市）？？”

原油价，黄金价。

shuhjiunho

原帖由 奥萨马宾拉丁 于 13-11-2007 01:25 PM 发表

OSK的仙家说:指数明年会来到1650点,您.....

他有他仙，我有我仙。。。。

shuhjiunho

原帖由 sector 于 13-11-2007 01:20 PM 发表
大庄在画图，你还在跟图跑。。。

Sector大大，那么我们应该怎样更大庄一起画啊？
给点提示嘛。。。？

弹煮

在画美图期间不要贪心就好，把profit target 调低。尽量不要hold长期，除非你的买价本来就很低那就不必理会。

我仙玩鸟。

sector

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 13-11-2007 01:42 PM 发表


Sector大大，那么我们应该怎样更大庄一起画啊？
给点提示嘛。。。？

为什么要跟大庄一起画，何老板钱太多？？？

sector

原帖由 8years 于 13-11-2007 01:26 PM 发表
风暴会不会来没有人可以肯定，不过风暴会来的几率非常高。

另外告诉大家很多人都看不到的问题。
“连最后一招降息也不能让股市上升，还有什么法宝救市（美国股市）？？”

大量投资的人自己保重。美国股市 ...

你忘记了还有美国大选？？

shuhjiunho

原帖由 sector 于 13-11-2007 01:51 PM 发表
为什么要跟大庄一起画，何老板钱太多？？？

哇！难道Sector大大能够让大庄画出你要的图？
哇！这一招我真的不会了。。。
请教Sector大大应该怎样做，好吗？

江湖

我有个朋友现在很紧张， 因为帮他买美国公司股票的证卷行面临倒闭危机

他问我应不应卖出通过这证卷行买的美国股票。如果卖了， 那证卷行会不会步还钱给他而拿去还债？

美国的问题真的很严重

这是他寄给我的消息：


E*Trade's Meltdown

The stock price gets slashed in half after the online brokerage says it can't predict new credit losses and an analyst mentions the possibility of bankruptcy. Will customers stick around?

The stock price gets slashed in half after the online brokerage says it can't predict new credit losses and an analyst mentions the possibility of bankruptcy. Will customers stick around?
  
for E*Trade Financial (ETFC) on Nov. 12. First, the company said the fair value of its $3 billion asset-backed securities portfolio had deteriorated further since Sept. 30, resulting in larger-than-expected write-downs. Thanks to rating agency downgrades and more problems in the credit markets, the company says it can't stick by its previous earnings predictions.

It went from bad to worse for E*Trade Financial (ETFC) on Nov. 12. First, the company said the fair value of its $3 billion asset-backed securities portfolio had deteriorated further since Sept. 30, resulting in larger-than-expected write-downs. Thanks to rating agency downgrades and more problems in the credit markets, the company says it can't stick by its previous earnings predictions.

Then, Citigroup (C) analyst Prashant Bhatia poured salt on the wounds on Nov. 12 by placing the probability of bankruptcy for E* Trade at 15%. He worried that the recent news would cause customers to pull their money out of E*Trade bank accounts. That would create a classic "run on the bank" scenario and could force E*Trade to sell its assets to give customers back their cash.

By the close of trading Nov. 12, E*Trade shares plunged nearly 59% to $3.55 after closing the previous session at $8.59. In June, the stock traded above $25.
E*Trade struck back at Bhatia's assessment. "The management team is focused on serving our customers as we combat the market reaction to the irresponsible comments included in the recent Citigroup analyst report," E*Trade spokeswoman Pam Erickson said in an e-mailed statement. "We take exception to the sensationalism based on unfounded speculation."

Though E*Trade tried to reassure customers and investors that its deteriorating financial situation wouldn't be fatal for the firm, it had very little else to say. No one, including E*Trade execs, really knows how bad things can get.

"Actual securities-related losses will depend on future market developments, including the potential for future downgrades by rating agencies, which are extremely difficult to predict in this environment," the company said in a statement. "Accordingly, management believes it is no longer beneficial to provide earnings expectations for the remainder of the year."

E*Trade is essentially saying, "We don't know how bad things could get," says Morningstar (MORN) analyst Patrick O'Shaughnessy. "That uncertainty is letting Wall Street's imagination run."

E*Trade also tried to assure customers that it's taking steps to handle the problems. "We could absorb an immediate write down in excess of $1 billion and still remain well-capitalized," wrote President Jarrett Lilien in an email to E*Trade customers Nov. 12. "It is our expectation that news in the market will get worse before it gets better, and, armed with these expectations, we are taking prudent measures to effectively manage the company's balance sheet," he added.

Back in October, E*Trade announced almost $200 million in losses due to the tough credit conditions, prompted by worries about risky mortgage debt. “We are clearly disappointed with the overall company performance as a result of the severe volatility in the credit markets,” E*Trade chief executive Mitchell Caplan said at the time.

The immediate concern is $450 million in assets that are considered the riskiest of E*Trade's holdings, Morningstar’s O’Shaughnessy says. Of those, about $50 million was recently downgraded by credit ratings agencies, and more downgrades could be on the way.

O'Shaughnessy says huge losses above the $1 billion threshold are within "the realm of possibility," but unlikely. "It's hard for me to see where that billion dollars could come from," he says.

In response to the credit problems, E*Trade CEO Caplan announced a plan last month to restructure the company. The goal is to move away from risky credit investments and back toward traditional brokerage and banking business. But analysts say it could take a year or more to be implemented.

The irony for E*Trade is that its credit losses arrive as its core business — offering a range of financial services through a bank and online brokerage — hums along. On Nov. 12, E*Trade reported results from October showing total client assets up 4% and its strongest trading volume ever.

In the competitive online brokerage industry, E*Trade’s troubles could be an opportunity for its rivals. TD Ameritrade (AMTD) was up 5.3% to $18.89 and Charles Schwab (SCHW) shares rose 2.6% to $22.81 on Nov. 12.

The weak balance sheet combined with the strong business results lead some to think E*Trade could be a takeover target. But a buyout might have to wait a while, until the potential credit losses become clearer. Until then, buyers may be very wary.

[ 本帖最后由 江湖 于 13-11-2007 02:05 PM 编辑 ]