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发表于 6-4-2006 01:29 PM
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Morning兄，jbfarmer兄，
投资股票原来可以到你们这样子的程度的。。。
我真是佩服到五体投地。。。。 |
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发表于 6-4-2006 02:28 PM
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jbfarmer & Morning兄，
你们的这封信连我这个局外人看了也直冒冷汗，果然够枰！  |
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发表于 6-4-2006 03:20 PM
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发表于 6-4-2006 07:17 PM
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說實在的，近來我回歸根本。
你主動對公司進行徹徹底底地了解的作風很像一位本地的宗師級人物。。。 |
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发表于 13-4-2006 11:48 AM
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Macy的回信（粗体字）：
Dear Macy,
Thanks for your reply.
We are a group of Megan’s small investor.
After “we” have study few years of Megan’s Annual/Quarterly Report, We have concluded below question and need to get some feedback from Megan.
1. Since year 2001 or even earlier as well, Megan has been putting the bill payables (which had to paid interest) in operating cash flow (ocf) instead of financing cash flow (fcf).
The result of doing so, Megan's ocf had been magnified all along, note that the sum involved here are in terms of hundred millions. Although this mistake had been rectified in FY 2005 Audited Annual Report, the most furious things is in the following quarter (quarter for FY 2006), the same mistake appears again.
[Reply] – Bills payable are short term in nature for working capital purposes. Anyway, to be consistent will reflect under financing in future.
2. Since year 2001 or even earlier, Megan had been given the wrong figure for total debt, in the quarter report's note on borrowings. Total debt in principle is total sum of borrowings and hire-purchase creditors, and sometimes amount due to director should be included as well because it has to pay interest to the director.
The buzzar thing is these calculations are correct in annual reports, but always wrong in quarter reports.
[Reply] – In Annual Report, on the face of the Balance Sheet only reflects Borrowings (1 figure). However, in the quarterly results, apart from borrowings (short & long term), amount due to directors and hire purchase creditors are presented on the face of the BS. As reported in the Annual Report, amount due to directors are interest free.
3. Below is quarterly bill payables balance:
① 31/04/05: 251,133
② 31/07/05: 302,201
③ 31/10/05: 282,706
④ 31/01/06: 183,616
282,706 - 183,616 ＝ 99,090
Why this quarter’s ocf decrease so much - 99,090 ?
[Reply] – Dropped in bills payables mainly due to lower utilization of trade facilities as the Company has utilized proceeds from bonds to repay bill payables
4. As we recalled, Megan had been paid out dividend in quarter 3 for fy2003, fy2004, fy2005, and fy2006.
In every financial years mention above, it was weird that the dividend payout's figure is recorded in operating cash flow instead of financiang cash flow.
Then the most ridiculous thing happens, in subsequence quarter (the 4th quarter of every financial year), the dividend payout's figure no longer exists in operating cash flow, but it is now recorded in financing cash flow, this can be verified via annual reports. Until now we can't figure out what went wrong, would you please kindly reveal the insider story for us?
[Reply] – Dividend paid should be recorded in financing activities. Will reflect as such in future quarterly results.
5. some of the RAM’s requirement:
① total debt/profit before depreciation, interest and tax(OPBDIT) < 2.5
② Maximum total debt to equity ratio of:
① 1.7 times for FY Apr 2006 and FY Apr 2007
② 1.5 times for FY Apr 2008
③ 1.2 times for FY Apr 2009
④ 1.0 time for FY Apr 2010
Current quarter’s total debt is: 750.409mil
Current OPBDIT is: 186.506mil
Ratio: 750,490 / 186,506 = 4.02  this has over 2.5, right?
To compliant the RAM requirement, it need:
750,409 / X = 2.5
X=300,163.3
So next quarter need:
300163.3 - 186506 = 113657.6
Sound like Megan will be degrade by RAM next quarter..?
[Reply] – We will monitor closely on our financial covenants.
We as small investor, we’d like to know this information to clarify. Thanks !
让我失望的是第五点："We will monitor closely on our financial covenants"，这简短的回应，透露出Megan面对match with RAM 标准的问题，如果下一季度的报表不好看，Megan's Bond降级的可能性将大大提高。
[ 本帖最后由 jbfarmer 于 13-4-2006 12:04 PM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 21-4-2006 12:02 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 21-4-2006 12:23 PM
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发表于 21-4-2006 12:39 PM
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跳上10000KM高空看Megan,你会发现Megan处在一个很好的“Position”。DVD市场是前所未有的好，而且还会延续几年。
潜入10000KM海底窥Megan，你会发现Megan在走险路。成本降则富，升则亡。
人们在赌Megan成本降。
[ 本帖最后由 jbfarmer 于 21-4-2006 12:49 PM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 21-4-2006 01:28 PM
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wow..JJfarm..
Good effort..tat's the way investor should behave.
Anyway, anythings inside the quarter report is havn't been audited. So, they can actually manipulate the result.
DVD has a larger market potential. Anyway, whether Megan going to be profited from that, it is yet to be known.
YOu have to understand.Down to the basic surviving skill...
Again, i m going to use management knowledge again 
SWOT-
1)Strength(S) 2)Weakness 3)Opportunities 4)Threat
Megan:
Strenght:
They have lots of order currently..and their production is hardly can cope with it. This is good sign.
Weakness:
They don't have a good system. In order to have a good system, they must have a good management team to outline it and furthermore, to excute it. Like i say, business is cruel and when you are in the business line, you are actually in the middle of jungle.The fittest survive!!
Opportunity:
Blu-ray market is coming up..China n India market are constantly growing..so does at the europe n US as well.
Threat:
i)Competitors- Taiwan n china manufacturer..a lot of HK businessman is jump into it oredi..Everyone is eyeing at this yummy " IE"
ii)Cost of good sales-how to keep it low , remain the biggest challenge of all..
So,is it MEGAN worth buying?? P/E is low n very attractive..anyway, like B.Graham say..Mr. Market is always going to offer u a price ..everyday..
I believe that there is still a lot of ppl willing to gamber on MEGAN..so, go ahead if you are confident with it..
but before that..i would like to remind you of one thing..
W.Buffet say "i would like to be vaguely right, then, precisely wrong"
a good thing to think about it before you invest...
Wish you gd luck |
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发表于 21-4-2006 02:22 PM
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发表于 22-4-2006 02:18 AM
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看過了各位大大的分析和討論,真的受益良多,在這裡先說聲謝謝.
雖然我在股市投資沒甚麼麼經驗, 可是我總覺得既然MEGAN有那麼高的負債,而且目前油價又高企不下,為甚麼我們不干脆去投資別的股票呢? 我相信其實還是有更多好的股票等著我們去投資,何必去冒那麼大的險呢? 還是大家都覺得"富貴險中求?" 所以一直沒放棄MEGAN? |
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发表于 22-4-2006 09:58 AM
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Megan这只股，我看KLSE.8K大大的女儿就是主力投资在此股里，所以我相信KLSE.8K的女儿的耐力十足。随着2003年至今，它的业绩不断膨胀着，唯一的隐忧就是高负债额及高Asset Depreciation Rate(~20%)。 |
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发表于 11-5-2006 05:38 PM
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发表于 11-5-2006 11:51 PM
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原帖由 psrngurney 于 11-5-2006 05:38 PM 发表
很高興的megan來到0.81了！
可苦等了我们。 |
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发表于 12-5-2006 12:00 AM
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不會苦啦，都還沒苦盡甘來，
也許會升回去三年前的 1.40 多以上的。 |
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发表于 12-5-2006 12:35 AM
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发表于 12-5-2006 04:48 PM
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发表于 25-5-2006 07:05 PM
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Hai,
楼主大大，
这么好的精华帖应该把他维持在顶部，省得人家又开新帖来讨论Megan. |
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发表于 26-5-2006 09:20 AM
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megan megan，又是惹起大家注意的时候。
偷偷告诉大家，或许没和megan有相关。一个化学原料制造商告诉我，近来polycarbonate(PC)还有下跌的趋势。
PC是DVD的主要原料（90%---不知是真的假的？），所以，照理说megan应该有更多的利润空间，不过昨天宣布电费起价15%对megan又添变数。。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 26-5-2006 09:41 AM
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原帖由 piao2 于 26-5-2006 09:20 AM 发表
megan megan，又是惹起大家注意的时候。
偷偷告诉大家，或许没和megan有相关。一个化学原料制造商告诉我，近来polycarbonate(PC)还有下跌的趋势。
PC是DVD的主要原料（90%---不知是真的假的？），所以，照理 ...
其实DVD/DVD-R都属于普通消费产品，加上这种产品没有品牌可言（请问朋友你们买DVD/DVD-R的时候，有说一定要买某个牌子的吗？非这个牌子不可？）所以竞争起来的时候，就只有最廉价生产商能占有最大的优势。（像Topglove一样）
最廉价的生产商在价格维持的时候不但能够为保持最大的利润，如果在恶性竞争的时候也能够占上风，有较大的空间调整价格，逐步将竞争者都推出场外。原料还不是最主要的问题，因为如果Megan能够拿到便宜的polycarbonate，那么其他厂家也是能够，所以Megan能不能在这些销售占上风，还是一个未知数。
很简单，为什么Megan最近的利润会一直下降呢？我猜想就是其他厂家能够卖到较低的价格，所以Megan也被逼降价来维持竞争和销量。可能Megan会胜，可是这样毕竟太多不知数了。我还是选择一些稳定性较高的生意投资吧！
有谁有更多消息？欢迎讨论！ |
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