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【8years 个人专区 1】8年的投资组合。
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楼主 |
发表于 4-4-2007 10:09 PM
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原帖由 guomiao88 于 4-4-2007 10:00 PM 发表
嘿嘿。。
多谢大大们的指导，小弟稍微研究了TITAN一下。
发现它的free cash flow 还蛮不错的。
2005的都用来还debt了。
嘿嘿。。以后期待它把debt还完了，大家就有钱收了。
不过。。。请问有人知 ...
石油产品通常都是破坏环境的。不过为了赚钱，没办法啦，选马来西亚就因为马来西亚政府好讲
不过有鬼佬在，相信环保的功夫会做好，废料也会处理好吧。。。。。。。。。。。 |
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发表于 4-4-2007 10:20 PM
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对不起，我也是转帖而已，可能报道有误。
如果有兴趣，看看TA Securities 的报告。
Analyst : Yung Juen Yeoh E-.. : [email protected] .. : 20721277 ext 1619Target price RM1.83 (+11.4%)
Company Update
Wednesday, 21 March 2007
Company Note
For Internal Circulation Only
KLCI : 1,205.28 Sector : INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS Bloomberg :TTNP MK
Titan Chemicals Corp Bhd
RM1.71 Hold
Softer 2H07
SHARE INFO
Stock Code Titan
Listing Main Board
Share Cap (m) 1752.7
Market Cap (RMm) 2997.1
Par Value (RM) 1.0
52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) 1.88/1.12
12-mth Avg Daily Vol (K shrs) 1407.9
Estimated Free Float (%) 42.1%
Beta 1.26
Major Shareholders (%)
PNB - 21.9%
Union Harvard Investments S.R.L - 30.8%
CGDC Investments Corporation - 5.2%
FINANCIAL INDICATORS
FY06
Net debt/equity (%) 46.3%
CFPS (sen) 42.3
P/CFPS (x) 4.0
ROA (%) 6.2%
NTA/Share (RM) 1.9
Price/ NTA (x) 0.9
5-year EPS CAGR (%) 30.8
FORECAST REVISION
FY06 FY07
Forecast Revision (%) na na
Net profit (RMm) 376.2 673.9
Consensus 375.0 469.8
TA/Consensus 1.00 1.43
Previous Rating HOLD (Downgraded)
… Titan's 100KTA butadiene and metathesis plants are on schedule to be
mechanically ready by the end of 2007 and earnings impact from butadiene
should be seen in 2008. Management does not foresee any run up in
construction costs as they have made pre-arrangements with their contractor.
… Titan can substitute up to 50% of naphtha with liquefied petroleum gas ("LPG"),
although it is substituting only 10% at the moment.
… We are expecting a weaker 2H07, contrary to the historical trend of Titan
recording a stronger 2H. At the same time, we are maintaining our earnings
estimates and our target price of RM1.83 based on an FY07 PER of 8.5x. Given
the run up in Titan's share price and the earnings risk of a weaker 2H07, we are
downgrading our call from buy to Hold with a total return of 11.4%.
BUTADIENE
… Titan's 100KTA butadiene plant (rubber tyres for light cars and trucks are made
of 75% of butadiene) is on track to finish mechanical production at the end of
FY07 and begin production in FY08. We currently forecast a 70% utilisation
rate in FY08 at a price of US$1463/MT. This will contribute an additional
RM369mn to Titan's topline and RM217mn to net profit. The current spot price
for Butadiene is US$1010/MT.
USAGE OF LPG
… Titan's managing director Thomas Grehl told the media in December that Titan's
Pasir Gudang plant has the option of replacing up to 50% of naphtha with LPG
(butane is commonly used as a gauge for the price of LPG).
… We learned yesterday that Titan will only be able to use 50% of LPG after it has
installed additional storage tanks. Without this upgrade, Titan can only
substitute up to 10% of naphtha with LPG.
EARNINGS SUMMARY (RMm) -TITAN
SHARE PERFORMANCE (%)
Price chg Titan KLCI
1 mth -3.4% -4.5%
3 mth 29.5% 12.0%
6 mth 41.3% 25.6%
12 mth 27.6% 30.6%
YE 31 Dec 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F
Revenue 3555.1 4497.6 5451.2 5394.3 6457.4
EBITDA 890.4 823.6 779.3 722.9 1085.4
Pretax profit 544.3 503.2 823.6 515.3 910.7
Pretax profit - adj 544.3 503.2 410.4 515.3 910.7
Net profit 262.3 361.8 773.2 376.2 673.9
Net profit -adj 262.3 361.8 345.2 376.2 673.9
EPS (Sen) 15.0 20.6 44.2 21.5 38.4
EPS -Adj (sen) 15.0 20.6 19.7 21.5 38.4
EPS Growth (%) 0.7 38% -4.6% 9 % 79%
PER @RM1.71 (x) 11.4 8.3 8.7 8.0 4.5
Gross Div (sen) Na 6.0 7.5 7.5 7.5
Div Yield (%) Na 0.0 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 5.1 5.4 4.5 2.1
ROE (%) 19.1% 13.2% 10.5% 10% 16%
NTA/share (RM) 0.78 1.56 1.87 2.05 2.39
Titan Chemicals Corp Bhd [ 1] Company Update
21 March 2007
… The industry standard is a 10% substitution and this usually occurs when
butane falls between 85% - 90% of the price of naphtha. So far in March, butane
has averaged 15% below the price of naphtha and Titan has been substituting
close to 10% of its naphtha with LPG .
… Many investors would feel much more comfortable with Titan if it is able to
hedge its polypropylene ("PP") and polyethylene ("PE") spreads, given their
price volatility. To management's knowledge however there is no product in the
market which would allow them do to this.
… Note that the LME and DMCC are both scheduled to roll out new products in
June 2007, but Titan is unaware of any products that would suit them.
EXPECTA STRONG 1Q07 BUTAWEAKER 2H07
… As there is a 6 week time lag between spot prices and the prices Titan recognises,
we expect the 1Q07 to be strong given that PP and PE spreads between December
2006 and February 2007 are at record levels (Figure 2 and Figure 3).
… The historical trend for Titan has been a weaker 1H and a stronger 2H. 2007
however is poised to be different due to the delays in cracker and polyolefin
plants in Asia and the Middle East during the 4Q06 and 1H07, which created
favourable supply/demand fundamentals for Titan. These supply shortages
were temporary and we do not believe they will persist. In fact Titan could see
flat earnings growth in FY07 if polyolefin spreads continue on their downward
trend.
Titan Chemicals Corp Bhd [ 2] Company Update
21 March 2007
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
… Titan intends on maintaining a dividend payout of around 30%, which would
imply a 6.5sen dividend in FY07. However we feel that Titan will maintain a
7.5sen dividend for the next two years.
… We are maintaining our earnings estimates at this moment and hence our target
price remains at RM1.83. Since our buy recommendation in November (See
November 6, 2006 report titled "Diversification Plan Underway") the stock has
appreciated 36% versus 21% for the KLCI.
… After such a spectacular run up and given the total return of 11.4%, we
downgrade our call from buy to Hold.
DISCLAIMER
The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions
are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept
no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest
in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein.
for TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD
Yaw Chun Soon, Executive Director - Operations
不知电子书的内容如何完整的copy出来？
[ 本帖最后由 kcthye 于 4-4-2007 11:09 PM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 4-4-2007 10:33 PM
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发表于 4-4-2007 10:42 PM
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回复 #263 8years 的帖子
我觉得TA Securities 的报告有点低估了Titan.
或者说保守吧！
[ 本帖最后由 kcthye 于 5-4-2007 08:50 AM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 4-4-2007 10:47 PM
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回复 #228 8years 的帖子
只成长25％？不是30％吗？对我来说，一间公司如果能持续成长20％以上就算是一个不错的公司了，一个业绩大起大落的公司并没有什么了不起，也不值得我们去冒险。 |
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发表于 4-4-2007 11:23 PM
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原帖由 8years 于 4-4-2007 08:23 PM 发表
是循环股吗？怎样去分别？？有什么资料吗？？
请翻开 "Stock Performance Guide 2006 September Edition" 第165页。 |
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发表于 5-4-2007 12:25 AM
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原帖由 keatsmon 于 4-4-2007 08:05 PM 发表
发生什么事？
原本這股就是醬的，它是慢慢熱的，我在去年 2 塊多時就看住它了，可惜自己忍不得，在 3 塊多把它給放了。
它現在很可能是向 6 塊前進的。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 09:58 AM
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原帖由 keatsmon 于 4-4-2007 11:23 PM 发表
请翻开 "Stock Performance Guide 2006 September Edition" 第165页。
我没有啊，你贴上来吧。。。。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 10:01 AM
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原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 4-4-2007 10:47 PM 发表
回复 #228 8years 的帖子
只成长25％？不是30％吗？对我来说，一间公司如果能持续成长20％以上就算是一个不错的公司了，一个业绩大起大落的公司并没有什么了不起，也不值得我们去冒险。
25是eps啊。对topglove而言是少了，也就为什么topglove pe 高，因为高成长股啊。就好像google pe500。
不过相信过了马币顶峰期topglove就会慢慢上升了。 |
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发表于 5-4-2007 10:07 AM
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回复 #269 8years 的帖子
我们就耐心的等这天的到来，放长线，钓大鱼。。嘿嘿。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 10:13 AM
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原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 5-4-2007 10:07 AM 发表
回复 #269 8years 的帖子
我们就耐心的等这天的到来，放长线，钓大鱼。。嘿嘿。
希望吧，在这段期间我还会买进1000股来啦低成本，因为可能还会跌。 |
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发表于 5-4-2007 10:17 AM
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回复 #271 8years 的帖子
除非他跌破8.80，否则我不会再进货了。其实我也没打算等太久，只要有赚我就会先把MARGIN的部分卖掉。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 10:23 AM
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原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 5-4-2007 10:17 AM 发表
回复 #271 8years 的帖子
除非他跌破8.80，否则我不会再进货了。其实我也没打算等太久，只要有赚我就会先把MARGIN的部分卖掉。
果然是用margin......
8。95有赚啊，可以卖啊。8。95-8。8=0。15 |
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发表于 5-4-2007 10:25 AM
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回复 #269 8years 的帖子
今天 TA Scurities的TOP GLOVE report
RM 8.95 Buy
Target price RM 10.3(+15.1%) |
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发表于 5-4-2007 10:30 AM
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回复 #273 8years 的帖子
我的目标价是9.20，看情况啦，卖不掉就先收着咯。八年兄，你觉得奇怪吗？这只股已经很久都没有动静了，除了那次的股灾掉到8.00，起回9.00后就静静的躺在那，好象死掉了哟，哈哈。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 10:36 AM
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原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 5-4-2007 10:30 AM 发表
回复 #273 8years 的帖子
我的目标价是9.20，看情况啦，卖不掉就先收着咯。八年兄，你觉得奇怪吗？这只股已经很久都没有动静了，除了那次的股灾掉到8.00，起回9.00后就静静的躺在那，好象死掉了哟，哈哈。
因为利好和利坏50，50。所以就不升不跌咯。等到利坏完全消失，那就升了。
我买的股希望是被低估的，希望是他有难时买进的
他的难迟早会过，那时就收割了，现在只是拨种期。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 10:38 AM
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原帖由 kcthye 于 5-4-2007 10:25 AM 发表
今天 TA Scurities的TOP GLOVE report
RM 8.95 Buy
Target price RM 10.3(+15.1%)
ta 搞的好事，应该是写hold的，为何buy??:@:@ |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 10:45 AM
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今天买进titan一些，因为怕走宝。买进后在等跌时加注。
Cash: 71980 71.98%
Share: 27520 27.52%
Net Gain -500 -0.50%
AVG Price Unit Total Price N Value
LCL 1.83 8000 14640 1.79 14320
Topglove 8.95 1000 9000 8.95 8950
Titan 1.7 2500 4250 1.7 4250 |
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发表于 5-4-2007 11:40 AM
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原帖由 8years 于 5-4-2007 10:38 AM 发表
ta 搞的好事，应该是写hold的，为何buy??:@:@
| BROKER CALL - Malaysia's Top Glove upgraded to buy', target 10.10 rgt - OSK | | 05/04/2007 | KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - OSK Research said it has upgraded rubber glovemaker Top Glove Corp to ''buy'' with a higher target price of 10.10 rgt from 9.96 following the group's commendable first half results.
It did not state its previous recommendation.
''Top Glove achieved another strong quarter where first half of financial year 2007 earnings grew by more than 30 pct,'' it said in a note.
''Expansion plans are already in place and we will see a much stronger showing in the second half once these plants begin to contribute,'' it added.
The research unit also noted that the company's ''balance sheet has seen significant improvements following strong cash inflow of over 230 mln rgt from the private placement of 27 mln shares.''
Top Glove recorded a second quarter to February net profit of 25.36 mln rgt against 20 mln in the previous corresponding period, while its first half net profit stood at 50.21 mln rgt against 38.36 mln a year earlier.
At 10.27 pm, Top Glove was up 0.05 rgt at 9.0.
(1 usd = 3.45 rgt)
[email protected] xfnjt/xfnjg
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为什么只怪TA，OSK呢？ |
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楼主 |
发表于 5-4-2007 11:46 AM
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原帖由 kcthye 于 5-4-2007 11:40 AM 发表
BROKER CALL - Malaysia's Top Glove upgraded to buy', target 10.10 rgt - OSK05/04/2007KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - OSK Research said it has upgraded rubber glovemaker Top Glove Corp to ''buy'' with ...
也好，买不到低价就算了，反正如果起了也有赚。
还有很多低价股可以选择，市场永远有机会 |
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