【专题讨论】25/07/2008: BANK NEGARA保持3.5%利率

988fulot10

原帖由 publicpang 于 26-7-2008 10:07 PM 发表
这次不起......等下一次来个起大100个基点.....让你翻船...

我不买股了，，放进银行更好，，

prestigio

100个基点才1%。。。3.75+1.00 =4.75% 而已。。。会翻船吗？大众每年的股息回酬都有6%-8%啦。。。

yewsin56

这次没起息就代表这只牛已成功的做好＂人工呼吸＂了.

hancom

如我所料，不起息才是正确的方向！

web

原帖由 liew3289 于 26-7-2008 07:44 PM 发表
老鸭早点下台，大家都好！就讓我們拭目以待

老鸭下台，禽兽上位，好咩？
先买定制造 C4 的公司的股票。

yjk1984

以下是个人对低利息的看法，
银行保持低利息，就会促使人们设法提高回酬率，人们就会把钱流向股市（投资或投机），或逼得人们索性现在开销，（购买产业，因为通膨会推高产业价格进而“增值”，或用在消费品，免得未来的购买力更为下降）。

当人民被迫使用钱的那一刻（投资或投机），钱一方面流向股市，（股市目前虽然毫无生气，但是未来的股市将会因为这些钱的流动而好转），另一方面，低利息鼓励企业继续筹资，贷款利息较低，能让企业乘机利用机会扩充业务（这是对于体质好的企业而言，而差劲的企业将被这波不景气所淘汰）。

当人民被迫消费（购买产业保值或因为害怕“购买能力”下降而消费），金钱流向市场，市场一流动，就会促进内需，接着带动企业的获利能力上升，企业的产品售受，就需要下更多的订单，工厂开工，就有就业机会，有就业机会就有薪水，薪水到手，就会买更多的产品，食品，衣食住行，样样都用到钱（别忘了还有娱乐活动，其他活动，日常生活，服务各式各样，样样需要开销）。

企业因为人民有钱，提升了内需，因而售出更多的产品。产品大卖，盈利上升，就会推高股价（股价的上升，主要的原因获利增加，人们看好某一间公司的前景，投机行为则有推波助澜的作用)

企业好赚钱，就会对股东分红（股息，红股等) ,对员工加薪，大家一起开心。人们越有钱，心情大好，开销自然增加。开销增加，产品自然畅销，订单也会多下几张，工厂因为需要应付更多的需求，自然要多一点的工人，工人不够？物以稀为贵。起新，吸引工人。为了留着旧的员工，也相应提高薪金。

钱一多，对于物质的品质要求相应提高，接着，奢侈品隆重登场，以“身份和地位”来牵动人们的欲望！人们就会为了能够慰劳自己，“过的更好，或过的更有品位，或者更加舒适”，就会千方百计设法提高自己的收入（注意，不再是为了填饱肚子，而是为了可以买更加贵，更旁人斗贵，斗有品位，地位等）。通货膨胀的压力就会越来越大，钱，越来越容易找，越来越好用，恶性通货膨胀终于即将爆发。

当然，国行不会就手旁观，“升息”的时代又开始了。
当国家对宏观经济进行调控的那刻，也是时候调整手上的投资组合，开始慢慢地远离股市，好好留着钱，紧紧抱着钱，迎接现金是王的时代了（器满则倾，物级必反）。

能够乘搭国家宏观调控的顺风车，可以走的更加平稳和顺畅。

v2_vehooi

我不知道这么多道理，我只知道这次国行不升息。。。我非常开心和感激。。。。 因为blr maintain

988fulot10

原帖由 web 于 27-7-2008 03:12 AM 发表

老鸭下台，禽兽上位，好咩？
先买定制造 C4 的公司的股票。

在那里有的买C4的股票，，，

harimau

原帖由 tnchsg 于 27-7-2008 01:16 PM 发表
blr和opr有什么关联？
如何区分？
谢谢？

opr 是 bank negara 定的。

opr 会影响 oir。

blr 是银行自定的。oir 会影响 blr。

什么是 opr  => http://voyager8.blogspot.com/2008/07/about-overnight-policy-rate-opr.html

什么是 oir => http://voyager8.blogspot.com/2008/07/about-overnight-interbank-rate-oir.html

opr 的调控对经济的影响 => http://voyager8.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-opr-can-affect-economic-climate.html

yahaha

谢谢老虎兄。。不过红毛子看了有点晕的说。。。有没有华文的？

Mr.Business

又要抑制通膨，又不要降低需求，世上哪有这么好的事情。。。

Mr.Business

此专区将拿来讨论我国的利率走向。

Mr.Business

新闻。

Monday July 28, 2008 MYT 10:16:35 AM
Bank Negara expected to keep OPR at 3.5% in 2H

KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3.5% in the second half of this year due to the worsening external environment and slower domestic growth prospects, says CIMB Economic Research.

It said Monday the central bank’s decision to maintain the OPR at 3.5% last Friday was “appropriately calibrated, given the current weak economic environment and the outlook over the next six to 12 months”.

CIMB Research said BNM’s decision to keep the OPR unchanged matched its expectations and made it the 18th consecutive time that the rates were held steady since May 22, 2006.

The research house said the tone of the central bank’s policy statement was skewed towards the potential significant downside risks to growth.

“Besides the elevated global risks, BNM is concerned about the deflationary impact of higher fuel prices and tariff as well as rising inflation on spending and investment in 2H of 2008 and 1H 2009,” it said.

It added the central bank’s policy consideration was to avoid a fundamental economic slowdown that would involve higher unemployment.

BNM had raised this year’s inflation forecast to between 5.5% and 6.0% from the previous estimate of 4.2% made immediately after the fuel price adjustment.

CIMB Research said the central bank was most concerned about generalised price increases and second-round effects triggered by wage increases.

“Should this phenomenon occur, the central bank would not hesitate to act. We think the slowing growth environment will help to moderate price pressures and lessen the pressure on wage hikes,” it said.

Meanwhile, Kuwait Finance House (KFH) global research said Monday it also expected inflation to remain elevated in the next few months.

KFH said the higher inflationary trend was due also to the recent hike in electricity tariffs, which came into effect on July 1, and persistent price increases on the food and energy fronts.

It expected the Budget 2009 proposals to be announced on Aug 29 could contain several more measures to increase the government’s revenue for development purposes.

“There are high expectations that higher duties and taxes will be levied on tobacco and alcoholic beverages which would further impact the consumer price index,” it said.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 07&sec=business