投资2008: 心得, 记录

blue_angel_007

2008会不会比2007好？？？

norehearsal

原帖由 blue_angel_007 于 4-1-2008 03:15 AM 发表
2008会不会比2007好？？？

会更好

ckng2007

肯定会更好。。。

kim777

原帖由 norehearsal 于 4-1-2008 12:47 AM 发表



kim777 大大,

坦率说, 我不明白你说的道理.
笼统地说, 全世界不都是由自然法则决定的吗?
怎么样应用在一个股呢?

是的，全世界是由自然规律决定。
只是 。。。。。你这话可问倒我了。。。。。一言难尽。。。。。
即使我说出来，你们也不会相信与接受。
算了，过程实在太复杂了，要写出来很费时，还是去预测结果比较好。
而且，我还是当宣佳的比较适合，没能力当老师，怕会误认人子弟。

norehearsal

原帖由 kim777 于 5-1-2008 12:08 AM 发表


是的，全世界是由自然规律决定。
只是 。。。。。你这话可问倒我了。。。。。一言难尽。。。。。
即使我说出来，你们也不会相信与接受。
算了，过程实在太复杂了，要写出来很费时，还是去预测结果比较好。
而 ...

Kim777 大大,

你不是庄家吧??
预测家可是只预测不参与的.

祝你预测成功!

如果能预测我持有的股就更好了!
(1) LPI
(2) Singapore Reinsurance
(3) .........
谢谢!

norehearsal

坐庄分析

　　股市坐庄有两个要点，第一，庄家要下场直接参与竞局，也就是这样才能赢；第二，庄家还得有办法控制局面的发展，让自己稳操胜券。
　　因此,庄家要把仓位分成两部分，一部分用于建仓，这部分资金的作用是直接参与竞局；另一部分用于控制股价。而股市中必须用一部分资金控盘，而且控盘这部分资金风险较大，一圈庄做下来，这部分资金获利很低甚至可能会赔，庄家赚钱主要还是要靠建仓资金。
　　控盘是有成本的，所以，要做庄必须进行成本核算，看控盘所投入的成本和建仓资金的获利相比如何，如果控盘成本超出了获利，则这个庄就不能再做下去了。一般来说，坐庄是必赢的，控盘成本肯定比获利少。因为做庄控盘虽然没有超越于市场之外的手段无成本的控制局面，但股市存在一些规律可以为庄家所利用，可以保证控盘成本比建仓获利要低。
　　控盘的依据是股价的运行具有非线形，快速集中大量的买卖可以使股价迅速涨跌，而缓慢的买卖即使量已经很大，对股价的影响仍然很小。只要市场的这种性质继续存在下去，庄家就可以利用这一点来获利。股价之所以会有这种运动规律，是因为市场上存在大量对行情缺乏分析判断能力的盲目操作的股民，他们是坐庄成功的基础。随着股民总体素质的提高，坐庄的难度会越来越大，但做庄仍然是必赢的，原因在于做庄掌握着主动权，市场大众在信息上永远处于劣势，所以在对行情的分析判断上总是处于被动地位，这是导致其群体表现被动的客观原因。这个因素永远存在，所以，市场永远会有这种被动性可以被庄家利用。
..
..............
http://www.denguang.com/html/book/lzjj/0002.htm


[ 本帖最后由 norehearsal 于 22-2-2008 11:48 PM 编辑 ]

norehearsal

选股先要选公司, 公司有三种:

1. 不好的公司.   (坚决不碰!)

2. 前途不明朗的公司. (坚决不碰!)

3. 安全, 前途看好的公司. (关注, 评估定价, 等待.)

[ 本帖最后由 norehearsal 于 24-2-2008 07:53 PM 编辑 ]

维纳斯之吻

一个字。。。。等

norehearsal

近来的几个教训:

1. Keep calm! You may not be able to notice you are not calm when you are not calm.
2. 4 legs + 1 tail = ? legs. The answer is 4.
3. Don't let the evaluation from other people in market determine your own evaluation. i.e., Don't let the market price determine your evaluation!!

M2M

norehearsal大大。。。。厉害。。。。 高人。。。。

norehearsal

10 Ways to Get Rich
Warren Buffett's secrets that can work for you
http://www.parade.com/hot-topics/0809/10-ways-to-get-rich_10


1. Reinvest your profits

When you first make money, you may be tempted to spend it. Don’t. Instead, reinvest the profits. Buffett learned this early on. In high school, he and a pal bought a pinball machine to put in a barbershop. With the money they earned, they bought more machines until they had eight in different shops. When the friends sold the venture, Buffett used the proceeds to buy stocks and to start another small business. By age 26, he’d amassed $174,000—or $1.4 million in today’s money. Even a small sum can turn into great wealth.

2. Be willing to be different

Don’t base your decisions upon what everyone is saying or doing. When Buffett began managing money in 1956 with $100,000 cobbled together from a handful of investors, he was dubbed an oddball. He worked in Omaha, not on Wall Street, and he refused to tell his partners where he was putting their money. People predicted that he’d fail, but when he closed his partnership 14 years later, it was worth more than $100 million. Instead of following the crowd, he looked for undervalued investments and ended up vastly beating the market average every single year. To Buffett, the average is just that—what everybody else is doing. To be above average, you need to measure yourself by what he calls the Inner Scorecard, judging yourself by your own standards and not the world’s.

3. Never suck your thumb

Gather in advance any information you need to make a decision, and ask a friend or relative to make sure that you stick to a deadline. Buffett prides himself on swiftly making  up his mind and acting on it. He calls any unnecessary sitting and thinking “thumb-sucking.” When people offer him a business or an investment, he says, “I won’t talk unless they bring me a price.” He gives them an answer on the spot.

4. Spell out the deal before you start

Your bargaining leverage is always greatest before you begin a job—that’s when you have something to offer that the other party wants. Buffett learned this lesson the hard way as a kid, when his grandfather Ernest hired him and a friend to dig out the family grocery store after a blizzard. The boys spent five hours shoveling until they could barely straighten their frozen hands. Afterward, his grandfather gave the pair less than 90 cents to split. Buffett was horrified that he performed such backbreaking work only to earn pennies an hour. Always nail down the specifics of a deal in advance—even with your friends and relatives.

5. Watch small expenses

Buffett invests in businesses run by managers who obsess over the tiniest costs. He once acquired a company whose owner counted the sheets in rolls of 500-sheet toilet paper to see if he was being cheated (he was). He also admired a friend who painted only the side of his office building that faced the road. Exercising vigilance over every expense can make your profits—and your paycheck—go much further.


6. Limit what you borrow

Living on credit cards and loans won’t make you rich. Buffett has never borrowed a significant amount—not to invest, not for a mortgage. He has gotten many heartrending letters from people who thought their borrowing was manageable but became overwhelmed by debt. His advice: Negotiate with creditors to pay what you can. Then, when you’re debt-free, work on saving some money that you can use to invest.

7. Be persistent

With tenacity and ingenuity, you can win against a more established competitor. Buffett acquired the Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983 because he liked the way its founder, Rose Blumkin, did business. A Russian immigrant, she built the mart from a pawnshop into the largest furniture store in North America. Her strategy was to undersell the big shots, and she was a merciless negotiator. To Buffett, Rose embodied the unwavering courage that makes a winner out of an underdog.

8. Know when to quit

Once, when Buffett was a teen, he went to the racetrack. He bet on a race and lost. To recoup his funds, he bet on another race. He lost again, leaving him with close to nothing. He felt sick—h e had squandered nearly a week’s earnings. Buffett never repeated that mistake. Know when to walk away from a loss, and don’t let anxiety fool you into trying again.

9. Assess the risks

In 1995, the employer of Buffett’s son, Howie, was accused by the FBI of price-fixing. Buffett advised Howie to imagine the worst-  and best-case scenarios if he stayed with the company. His son quickly realized that the risks of staying far outweighed any potential gains, and he quit the next day. Asking yourself “and then what?” can help you see all of the possible consequences when you’re struggling to make a decision—and can guide you to the smartest choice.

10. Know what success really means

Despite his wealth, Buffett does not measure success by dollars. In 2006, he pledged to give away almost his entire fortune to charities, primarily the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. He's adamant about not funding monuments to himself—no Warren Buffett buildings or halls. "I know people who have a lot of money," he says, "and they get testimonial dinners and hospital wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them. When you get to my age, you'll measure your success in life by how many of the people you want to have love you actually do love you. That's the ultimate test of how you've lived your life."